Will Ukraine’s economy withstand a new global crisis? Novak’s forecast
13 April 18:46
A new global financial crisis, like the previous one, could originate in the United States. Ukraine should start preparing now for new challenges and adapt its economic model to minimize the impact of the crisis. Economist Andriy Novak made these remarks in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
“We all remember the global crisis of 2008–2009, which originated in the United States. Back then, the mortgage lending bubble burst there, triggering a chain reaction. A new potential global crisis will have the same source of origin—it will begin in the United States of America,” says Novak.
According to the economist, the current risks are of a different nature, but the logic remains similar—global processes are triggered by decisions made by the world’s largest economy.
“The first global cause is that the U.S. administration began imposing massive tariffs on all countries, which, of course, triggered price hikes and the onset of a financial crisis.
The continuation of this crisis was reflected in the fact that the U.S. started the war with Iran. This, in turn, triggered a significant rise in oil prices,” Novak notes.
The economist also points out that global crises are not a coincidence but part of the economic cycle.
“It would seem that such a large country, with a powerful economy, is the source of all global crises. This is done deliberately. There is a concept known as economic overheating. And the U.S. has no other option but to cool down its overheated economy by triggering global crises,” he explains.
The economist emphasizes: Ukraine should not wait until the crisis hits citizens’ pockets. We need to act proactively, he adds.
“Crises are cyclical. They will recur, and we must be prepared for this. We must act proactively to minimize the impact of these crises,” he notes.
According to Novak, the key task is to change the country’s economic model.
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“If we continue to be treated as a raw materials appendage, if we continue to operate through offshore companies—then we have no future. Simply none,” he says.
Novak adds that even during the war, the economy does not stop, so changes need to be implemented right now.
“The economy is a continuous process. Economic processes continue nonstop, around the clock. If Ukraine doesn’t change its approach to the economy today, then after victory we risk facing even bigger problems, and solving them will be much harder,” he concluded.
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