There are currently about 29 million people in Ukraine: Libanova explained where this figure comes from and when a census might be held
3 August 18:52
YOUTUBE
About 29 million Ukrainians currently live in territory controlled by Ukraine, which is approximately 1 million fewer than last year. This estimate was provided by Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to Libanova, although the last and only comprehensive census in Ukraine was conducted in 2001, demographers today have their own system for estimating the population.
“It’s a fairly complex estimation system. There’s a methodology based on data from the three largest mobile operators—Vodafone, Kyivstar, and Lifesell,” she explained.
Libanova explained that after receiving data from the operators, specialists analyze duplicate SIM cards.
“A single primary card is identified, since one person may use multiple numbers,” she clarified.
The information is then cross-checked against government registries.
“After that, a cross-check is performed against data from the main population registries. First and foremost, this is the Pension Fund, which also includes the tax registry. Next, we consult Helsi, the school registry, and so on,” she explained.
According to her, this is precisely how the current estimate of 29 million people was arrived at.
Libanova emphasized that the key factor behind the demographic losses is the full-scale war.
“Undoubtedly, the primary cause is the war. There’s no doubt about that. First of all, if there were no war, there wouldn’t be such massive emigration. Second, there wouldn’t be occupied territories, where we’ve also lost population,” she added.
At the same time, there are no precise figures on the number of Ukrainians remaining in the occupied territories.
“No one has these statistics. Perhaps the Russians are keeping track somehow, but, first of all, I don’t really trust their statistics, and, secondly, I’m not going to contact them,” she emphasized.
The demographer also explained why conducting a census during wartime is not just impractical, but virtually impossible.
“A census relies on data about the permanent population—that is, the population that permanently resides in a given territory. While the war is ongoing, what permanent population or permanent residence are we even talking about?” she said.
Even after hostilities end, Libanova emphasizes, people will not return to their homes immediately.
“For many, the cities where they used to live have been destroyed, or their homes have been destroyed; some have already adapted to a new place of residence,” adds Libanova.
According to the director of the Institute of Demography, even under the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine will not be able to conduct a census until at least two years after the war ends.
“It will take some time for everything to settle down. If all goes well, we’ll be able to do it in two years,” she emphasized.
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