War of attrition and the threat of a Russian winter offensive: Military analyst identifies the Kremlin’s “Achilles’ heel”
12 June 21:19
The Kremlin continues to raise the stakes, reporting a 700,000-strong troop contingent on the front lines and openly calling for new war crimes—massive strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure—in an effort to intimidate our society. However, the reality on the ground in Russia is far from its propaganda fantasies: Ukrainian forces have identified the enemy’s economic “Achilles’ heel,” while simultaneously preparing to repel potential large-scale enemy operations. Where exactly is the Kremlin’s economic weak spot? Is Russia, exhausted by years of war, capable of clothing, feeding, and arming a new wave of conscripts? And most importantly—is the threat of a major winter offensive a real plan or a bluff?
The Russian-Ukrainian war has finally turned into a classic war of resources, where victory goes not to the one who makes rapid breakthroughs, but to the one whose economic and social system proves to be more resilient. The Kremlin’s attempts to intimidate Ukraine with a new large-scale offensive in the winter will directly depend on Russia’s ability to carry out another wave of mobilization, which is currently highly questionable.
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Historical parallels: Why is Russia doomed in a protracted war?
Analyzing the current stage of the conflict, Grigory Tamar cites several striking historical examples of wars of attrition that illustrate the logic of current events:
World War I: A war of attrition where resources played a primary role. Victory went to the Entente, which had a more resilient economy.
War of attrition (the 1967–1970 Israel-Soviet War): When the USSR proposed to Egypt a strategy of economically bleeding Israel dry, the Jewish state nevertheless held out.
The Iran-Iraq War: Saddam Hussein hoped to quickly dismantle Iran’s system, which had been weakened by the revolution, but the conflict escalated into a protracted mutual war of attrition.
According to the analyst, Russia’s main strategic mistake was counting on Ukraine to be left on its own.
“But Ukraine is not alone. Ukraine is being helped—for better or worse, yes, there are many complaints—but the entire civilized Western world is helping. This is an objective reality, so resources must be considered accordingly. If Ukraine were alone, Russia would have crushed it long ago,” Tamar emphasizes.
The Kremlin’s “Achilles’ heel” and the mobilization farce
The expert notes that the situation within the Russian Federation is far from the fantasies of Russian generals. Ukraine has managed to find the most vulnerable spot in the Russian macroeconomic system and is now delivering precise, “rapier-like” strikes against the aggressor’s oil refining industry and oil exports. The top story in recent days has been the effective strikes by Ukrainian “Flamingo” missiles on Russian territory.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s plans to replenish the army may face a harsh reality. Tamar predicts that a new attempt at mobilization in Russia will most likely be thwarted.
“If the partial mobilization in the fall of 2022, when Russia was stronger and not exhausted by years of war, resembled a military farce, then now, after several years of bloody war, when Soviet stockpiles of weapons and ammunition are depleted, I want to see how these soldiers will be fed, clothed, armed, and who will command them,” says the analyst, adding that mobilization is an extremely complex matter that cannot be carried out “simply by party order.”
Incidentally, on June 12, international war criminal Vladimir Putin, after meeting with participants in the so-called “special military operation,” attempted to boost the occupiers’ morale. His speech became yet another manifesto of isolationism, aggression, and veiled fear of the West’s technological superiority. Putin effectively acknowledged that his country has found itself in complete international isolation. He once again complained that Russia is “practically alone” in opposing NATO, as all Alliance countries are stepping up their efforts to defeat the aggressor.
“Russia is practically alone in confronting the entire so-called collective West in the form of the well-known NATO organization. After all, all NATO countries—without exception—are stepping up their efforts and doing everything possible to bring the war unleashed against Russia to a victorious conclusion,” Putin stated, once again attempting to impose on Russians the myth of a “siege” from all sides.
At the same time, the dictator tried to reassure those present, assuring them that Russia could “never” be dealt a “strategic defeat.”
Russia’s Winter Offensive: What Should Ukraine Prepare For?
On June 12, 2026, Putin announced the latest figures regarding the size of his forces, stating that over 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently concentrated on the front lines in Ukraine. This figure indicates the continuation of covert mobilization and the Kremlin’s readiness to continue flooding the front lines with “human wave attacks.”
Commenting on analysts’ predictions regarding the threat of a new Russian winter offensive, Hryhorii Tamar confirmed that such a scenario is entirely realistic—both from the air and on the ground.
A ground operation by the occupiers will only be possible if the Kremlin decides to attempt a mobilization this fall. Then the first “fruits” of this wave will appear on the front lines in late fall or early winter, and the Russian command will ruthlessly throw them into the “furnace of war.”
“As far as I know, your General Staff is preparing for both the winter missile offensive and the ground offensive as best as possible, taking into account all the circumstances of what is happening,” concluded Hryhoriy Tamar.
The Kremlin leader has openly called for an escalation of war crimes against Ukraine’s civilian population. Putin is demanding intensified strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
Thus, the historical experience of World War I, the war of attrition in the Middle East, or the Iran-Iraq conflict clearly demonstrates: in the protracted grind of a resource-based conflict, the aggressor always reaches the limits of its capabilities. The Kremlin’s main miscalculation lay in the false hope that Ukraine would be left alone in this war.
Thanks to support from the Western world and targeted strikes on the most vulnerable points of the Russian economy, each new attempt by Moscow to seize the initiative is becoming increasingly difficult for it.
