The EU may impose $93 billion in retaliatory tariffs on the US: Experts explain whether Europe is ready for a confrontation with Washington
19 January 20:08
РОЗБІР ВІД 
The European Union is considering imposing trade restrictions on the United States in response to President Donald Trump’s statements regarding potential tariffs on Europe amid the situation involving Greenland.
This is reported by the Financial Times.
The EU is preparing countermeasures
As the publication notes, Brussels is discussing the possibility of imposing tariffs on American goods worth a total of €93 billion or introducing restrictions on U.S. companies in the European market. Such steps are being considered as a reaction to Trump’s statements about the possible annexation of Greenland.
The goal of these measures is to prevent a serious rift within the Western defense alliance, which, according to European officials, could pose a direct threat to Europe’s security.
A list of potential tariffs drafted last year has been put on hold until February 6 to avoid a major trade conflict between the EU and the U.S.
Paris and Berlin are seeking leverage
France and Germany are coordinating a joint position and considering the use of the so-called Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which allows for restrictions on investments and exports by American companies in response to political or economic pressure.
One European official emphasized that Trump’s statements could well serve as grounds for applying the ACI, as they constitute a classic form of coercion.
Transatlantic security is at risk
Earlier, Donald Trump demanded that Denmark agree to transfer control of Greenland and threatened to impose 10% tariffs on imports from the United Kingdom, Norway, and six EU countries that have deployed troops to the Arctic island.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen responded by stating that Copenhagen is committed to cooperation and has no interest in confrontation.
In Brussels, officials hope that demonstrating a readiness for a tough response will intensify bipartisan pressure within the U.S. and force Trump to reconsider his position.
One European diplomat summed up that the situation has gone too far to seek a compromise: the transfer of Greenland is impossible, and the U.S. president’s actions, in his words, have effectively “opened Pandora’s box.”
The situation has changed, and the EU hasn’t noticed
The European Union does not fully realize how rapidly the global political and economic situation is changing, and attempts to pressure the U.S. will only worsen Europe’s own situation. This view was expressed by Taras Zagorodniy, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group and a political scientist.
According to the expert, Brussels continues to operate based on a logic that no longer corresponds to reality.
“The European Union still does not understand how dynamically the situation is evolving. What might have been perceived as a threat six months or a year ago no longer works today. The context is completely different,” Zagorodniy noted.
He emphasizes that the United States is demonstrating a willingness to firmly defend its own interests and impose its own rules of the game.
“The Americans have shown that they are acting with confidence: they are pulling out of the markets of China, Russia, and other countries, and putting pressure on logistics, energy, and trade. They see that they are succeeding in many areas,” the political analyst explained.
Zagorodniy pays special attention to the EU’s economic problems, particularly the growing pressure from China.
“Trump sees that China is literally flooding the European market with cheap goods because it cannot fully export them to the U.S. As a result, factories are closing in Germany, and Europe is still not ready to raise tariffs against China,” he noted.
According to the expert, the EU has also yet to address a number of strategic mistakes.
“Europe continues to cling to the idea of phasing out nuclear energy, even though this is an obvious blow to competitiveness. Certain politicians are already starting to talk about this, but we haven’t seen any real solutions yet,” Zagorodniy added.
A trade war with the U.S. — a dead-end path
The political analyst is convinced that attempts to restrict trade with the US under current conditions appear particularly risky.
“The EU has a positive trade balance with the US—Europe exports more than it imports. And in such a situation, starting yet another confrontation is, to put it mildly, illogical,” the expert emphasized.
He warns that an additional trade war could permanently weaken European industry.
“Europe is already under pressure from China, and industry is in decline. And now a conflict with the U.S. as well? This won’t stop Washington, but will only worsen Europe’s own situation,” Zagorodniy noted.
The U.S. and the EU are entering a phase of economic war
Transatlantic relations between the US and the European Union are rapidly deteriorating, and further escalation could turn into a full-scale economic war. This assessment was expressed by former SBU employee and military expert Ivan Stupak.
According to Stupak, this is not about an armed conflict, but about a trade and tariff confrontation.
“There will be a war. But not a military one—an economic one. Donald Trump is a man who is ready to fight even with allies. He doesn’t fight enemies; he fights those with whom the U.S. has cooperated for decades,” the expert noted.
The expert believes that Washington’s current actions are undermining the system of international relations established at the beginning of the 20th century.
“In fact, the relationships established after World War I—dating back to the time of Woodrow Wilson and his principles—are being destroyed. This is not an overnight process, but the deterioration is already evident,” Stupak emphasized.
At the same time, he emphasizes that Europe remains critically dependent on the United States for security.
Europe is not ready for autonomy without the U.S.
According to the expert’s assessment, EU countries will need at least several years to prepare for a potential distancing from the U.S.
“Europeans themselves say: we need at least 2–3 years to be ready to act independently of the US in the event of serious crises. Ideally—5–7 years. They are already doing something now, but the gap in capabilities is enormous,” he explained.
Stupak points out that Europe has not invested enough in its own defense for decades.
“Europeans have gotten used to relying on the Americans: they figure all they have to do is call—and the U.S. will sail in with aircraft carriers, fly in with aircraft, and roll in with tanks. And you don’t have to do a thing,” the expert noted.
Tariffs as a tool of pressure
Ivan Stupak drew attention to Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on European countries.
“Initially, there was talk of a 10% tariff for countries that sent their contingents to Greenland. The contingent is symbolic—10 to 15 soldiers each. However, Germany has already announced that it is withdrawing its troops,” he said.
Later, according to the expert, threats were made regarding a 25% tariff on European goods shipped to the U.S.
“French wines and cognacs, cars, and other industrial and consumer goods could fall under these restrictions. This is essentially shooting oneself in the foot—or even worse,” added Stupak.
A trade war benefits the West’s adversaries
The expert emphasized that the US and the EU are key trading partners for each other.
“The European Union is the number one partner for the U.S. About 20% of American exports go there. But despite this, the parties are moving toward confrontation,” he noted.
According to Stupak, such an economic war carries strategic risks.
“This trade and economic war does not promote Western unity, does not help Ukraine, but clearly plays into the hands of Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia,” the expert concluded.
Thus, according to experts, Brussels’ threats to impose tariffs and restrictions against the U.S. demonstrate the inertia of old thinking rather than adaptation to new conditions. The Trump administration openly declares its readiness for tough, unilateral actions and no longer views traditional allied constraints as a deterrent. In this situation, the EU’s attempts to act through trade pressure appear belated and ineffective.
