12% is still an optimistic estimate: Marchuk explained just how much bread prices could actually rise
19 August 17:46
YOUTUBE
The price of bread in Ukraine could rise by another 12% by the end of 2026—and this forecast represents an optimistic scenario. Additional pressure on the cost of bread and baked goods is being created by damage to infrastructure, rising diesel fuel prices, and the forced shift of businesses to generator power. Denis Marchuk, deputy chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, made this statement in an interview with "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to him, the cost of bread will also be affected by rising logistics costs due to damage to transportation and energy infrastructure.
“Added to this is the problem of disruptions to logistics—changes in routes, reorganizing product delivery, packaging, and transportation. This entails additional costs,” he noted.
Another key factor will be energy—in the event of power outages, large baking enterprises will be forced to switch to generators on a massive scale.
“A company operating on a significant market scale requires not 3–5 kW, but at least 150–200–300 kW,” said Marchuk.
He also drew attention to the high cost of diesel fuel required to run such generators.
“This type of power generation is becoming more expensive due to the purchase of diesel fuel, which currently costs up to 100 hryvnias per liter wholesale. Consequently, it places a very heavy burden on production costs,” the expert noted.
When asked directly whether the 12% forecast was indeed an optimistic scenario, Marchuk gave a clear answer.
“This is an optimistic scenario,” he stated.
According to the expert, the final price trend will depend primarily on the stability of the energy supply in the coming months.
“Everything will depend on the situation with energy resources,” Marchuk concluded.
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