26 banks will undergo the NBU’s stress test under two scenarios: what depositors need to know
5 May 06:45
The National Bank of Ukraine has approved the methodology for stress testing banks in 2026. This is the third and final stage of assessing the banking system’s resilience, which will determine whether financial institutions have sufficient capital to operate even in the event of a deep and prolonged crisis. The review will cover 26 banks, which account for over 90% of the banking system’s assets.
This was announced by the National Bank of Ukraine, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
The assessment will be conducted over a three-year forecast horizon using two scenarios—base and adverse.
What is bank stress testing?
Stress testing is an assessment that simulates how a bank will perform under conditions of economic deterioration.
The regulator assesses whether the bank will have sufficient capital if the economic situation worsens: GDP falls, inflation rises, resource costs increase, and borrowers’ solvency deteriorates.
For the NBU, this is one of the main tools for monitoring the stability of the banking system.
How many banks will the NBU test
In 2026, stress testing will cover 26 banks.
These financial institutions account for over 90% of the assets of Ukraine’s entire banking system.
In other words, these are the largest and systemically important banks, whose condition is crucial for the country’s financial stability.
What scenarios will the National Bank use
The assessment will be conducted based on two macroeconomic scenarios:
| Scenario | What it entails |
|---|---|
| Base | Based on the NBU’s official macroeconomic forecast and consensus exchange rate forecasts |
| Adverse | models a deep and prolonged crisis, but is not a forecast of future events |
Important: the adverse scenario does not mean that the NBU expects this exact outcome. It is a hypothetical model designed to test banks’ resilience.
What the adverse scenario entails
The adverse stress-testing scenario simulates a sharp deterioration in the economic situation during the first two years of the forecast period.
It includes several key assumptions:
- a decline in real GDP in the first two years;
- a decline in production;
- a decline in domestic demand;
- a deterioration in the external environment;
- accelerating inflation due to devaluation and reduced supply;
- rising interest rates;
- rising cost of liabilities for banks;
- deterioration of businesses’ financial condition;
- a decline in household welfare;
- increased credit risk;
- partial economic recovery in the third year.
This scenario allows us to assess whether banks will be able to withstand the simultaneous pressure of several negative factors at once.
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What risks will the NBU assess
The methodology involves assessing four main risks.
Credit risk
This is the risk that borrowers will be unable to service their loans. In a crisis scenario, it increases due to a decline in business and household incomes.
For large corporate borrowers, defaults will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. For other loans, a portfolio approach will be applied.
Interest rate risk
This risk is associated with changes in interest rates. If rates rise, it may become more expensive for banks to raise funds, and their interest margins may shrink.
Currency risk
Currency risk arises from the revaluation of assets and liabilities in the event of exchange rate changes. This is important for banks if they hold significant foreign currency positions or have customers with foreign currency loans.
Operational risk
Operational risk will be taken into account in the first year of an adverse scenario. It may include losses due to process or system failures, human error, or external events.
What happens if a bank lacks sufficient capital
If, based on the results of stress testing, the NBU identifies a capital shortfall exceeding the regulatory minimum, the bank will be required to prepare a program:
- capitalization;
- restructuring;
- or other measures to restore capital adequacy.
In effect, the bank must demonstrate to the regulator how it plans to address the identified shortfall and ensure stable operations.
What last year’s stress tests revealed
Based on the results of the 2025 stress tests, higher capital adequacy requirements were imposed on nine banks.
These banks accounted for about 18% of the banking system’s assets.
This means that the majority of the system demonstrated sufficient resilience, but some financial institutions required additional attention from the regulator.
Why this matters for depositors and businesses
For depositors, stress testing is a signal that the largest banks undergo regular checks on their ability to withstand economic shocks.
For businesses, this is important because stable banks can lend more actively to the economy. If a bank has sufficient capital, it is better able to issue loans, support customers, and operate even under conditions of high uncertainty.
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