Gasoline at 100 UAH didn’t materialize: what will happen to fuel prices in Ukraine by the end of summer
12 August 20:24
Following a sharp spike in prices at the end of July, the Ukrainian fuel market has stabilized to some extent. The average price of A-95 gasoline is currently 81.67 UAH per liter, and diesel fuel is 91.56 UAH. Prices have remained virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours.
However, it’s too early to say that prices have returned to early-summer levels. Over the past month, gasoline has risen in price by approximately 6–7 UAH per liter, and diesel by more than 10 UAH. "Komersant Ukrainian" examined what prices to expect at gas stations by the end of summer.
Diesel Has Pulled Ahead of Gasoline
As of July 21, the average price of A-95 at Ukrainian gas stations was 77.28 UAH/liter, while diesel was 80.16 UAH/liter. Over the course of three weeks, gasoline prices rose by about 4.4 UAH, and diesel prices by more than 11 UAH.
The biggest jump occurred in the second half of July. On July 29, the average price of diesel fuel was already around 89 UAH/liter, and at some chains, premium diesel cost over 95 UAH.
As of August 12, prices for gasoline and diesel at major chains differ by several hryvnias per liter.
For example, A-95 costs 82.90 UAH/liter at OKKO, 83.50 UAH at WOG, and 85.40 UAH at SOCAR. Diesel at these chains costs 93.90, 93.80, and 95.90 UAH/liter, respectively.
Meanwhile , Ukrnafta sells A-95 for 79.90 UAH/liter and diesel for 89.90 UAH/liter.
The difference between operators is not explained solely by profit margins. There remains a shortage of certain batches of fuel on the market, and purchase prices and logistics costs vary.
In July, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of “A-95,” Ukraine imported approximately 5% more diesel than during the same period last year. But this did not ease the strain. Demand rose during the harvest season, large consumers were building up their stockpiles, and logistics were complicated in part by problems at the western border and on the Danube. In addition, Poland’s Orlen reduced diesel supply quotas to Ukrainian buyers by approximately 20–30% in August.
There is another factor: in July, Russia banned the export of diesel fuel and gas oil. According to KSE estimates, this could reduce global exports of Russian diesel by up to 36%.
Why the 100 UAH forecast did not come true
In late July, the market was abuzz with discussions of a scenario in which diesel was expected to surpass the 100 UAH/liter mark as early as the beginning of August. Dmytro Leushkin, head of Prime Group, predicted that by August 10, diesel could cost around 100 UAH, and gasoline around 95 UAH. That did not happen.
Instead, wholesale prices for diesel began to fall in early August. According to Serhiy Kuyun, panic-driven demand from farmers and transport companies has eased, and previously contracted fuel shipments have begun to enter the market.
“It appears that the tense supply situation will persist until mid-August. However, a ‘flood’ of supply should be expected afterward, since everyone, out of panic, contracted as much fuel as they did in April—enough to last until winter.
Prices will likely remain stable, as supplies contracted at the peak of prices in late July will continue to arrive throughout most of the month. What we can say with certainty is that the forecast of 100 UAH/liter has been ruled out. “For the second time in half a year, we’re stopping just one step short of reaching that mark,” the expert explains.
At the same time, experts clearly do not expect fuel prices to drop rapidly. This is especially true given that a significant portion of the fuel to be sold in August was purchased back in late July at the peak of prices.
The global market is once again adding risks
The main problem is that the Ukrainian market depends not on the price of crude oil directly, but on the cost of refined petroleum products in Europe.
That is why even a drop in Brent prices does not always immediately mean cheaper gasoline or diesel in Ukraine.
In late July, the European diesel market was under heavy pressure. The margin for diesel production in Europe rose to record levels amid supply disruptions and a reduction in Russian exports, as reported by Reuters.
And on August 10–11, the situation worsened again. Following attacks on oil refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia, diesel prices in the U.S. and Europe rose sharply.
What Drivers Can Expect
In the short term, the most likely scenario is that prices will stabilize, though without any significant drop. For gasoline, this means the average price will remain at 80–83 UAH/liter, and for diesel, approximately 90–95 UAH/liter at major retail chains.
Diesel, however, remains the most vulnerable to further price hikes. If prices on the European market continue to rise and supplies to Ukraine remain constrained, this will inevitably affect prices at gas stations.
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