The IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand
12 August 21:45
Global oil demand in 2026 will decline by 1.56 million barrels per day year-over-year, according to the monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) released on Wednesday, August 12. A month earlier, IEA analysts had expected global oil demand to decline by only 1.05 million barrels per day, reports "Komersant Ukrainian", citing DW.
The forecast was revised against the backdrop of the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which plays a key role in oil supplies to the global market, as well as persistently high fuel prices, which are affecting consumption levels, the agency’s report states.
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It is noted that in the second quarter of 2026, the decline in demand will amount to 4.9 million barrels per day, in the third quarter of 2026—2.8 million barrels per day, and growth will be recorded again in the fourth quarter. In 2027, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
Projected Oil Supplies to the Global Market
As for oil supplies to the global market, according to the IEA, they rose by 2.4 million barrels per day in July to 101.5 million barrels per day. However, this level is 6.3 million barrels per day lower than last year’s, the report notes.
“The resumption of hostilities and disruptions in maritime transport in July and early August undermined recovery efforts. As a result, the projected volume of oil supplies to the global market in the third quarter of 2026 was reduced by 1.7 million barrels per day compared to the figure in the previous month’s report,” the agency explains. It is currently projected that the average reduction in oil supplies to the global market in 2026 will amount to 4.3 million barrels per day. Next year, oil supplies to the global market will increase by 8.3 million barrels per day—to 110.3 million barrels per day.”
Crude oil prices have remained significantly higher than the levels seen before the U.S.- and Israeli-led war against Iran, which damaged oil infrastructure in several Persian Gulf countries, the publication notes
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