Bookmakers predict a US strike on Iran by July – bets are rising
18 June 2025 09:12
The likelihood that the United States will strike Iran before July 2025 is growing rapidly. On the Polymarket forecasting platform, the probability of hostilities by the US Armed Forces has exceeded 69%. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to the platform’s data.
As of the night of Wednesday, June 18, this figure reached 72%, although on Tuesday afternoon, users estimated this scenario at only 45%.
At the time of this writing, the odds of a strike were at 69%.
The day before, the probability of such a scenario was estimated to be half that. The sharp change in sentiment is due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the intensification of American rhetoric toward Iran.
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US involvement
Meanwhile, Washington is increasing its military presence in the region. According to Reuters, the US is deploying fighter jets and continuing to deploy existing forces. The U.S. military has not yet launched direct strikes, but is participating in Israel’s missile defense.
Against this background, Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Iran. In posts on Truth Social, he hinted that he knew the whereabouts of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, adding:
“We’re not going to take him out… at least not yet. But our patience is running out.”
Three minutes later, Trump tweeted:
“UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”.
At the same time, the US President does not rule out deeper intervention in the conflict. According to sources, he and his team are discussing the possibility of participating in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. On Tuesday, Trump had a phone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and later held a meeting with the US National Security Council.
Israel claims to have control over Iranian airspace and plans to expand the campaign. But it will be difficult to destroy the most protected facilities, including the Fordo plant under the rock, without US involvement.
