Should We Expect Another Spike in the Dollar? A Banker Points to the Main Factor
11 July 08:39
Next week, the foreign exchange market is likely to remain relatively stable. The dollar will stay near current levels, while the euro exchange rate will continue to depend not only on the situation in Ukraine but also on global currency trends. Taras Lesovyi, director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activities at Globus Bank, made these remarks in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
The dollar will remain within its usual range
According to Lesovyi’s forecast, the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to exceed 44.4–45 hryvnias in the coming week. This is a continuation of the trend that emerged in early July, when the market entered a phase of moderate fluctuations without sharp spikes.
The banker notes that the current regime of “managed flexibility” allows the National Bank to respond promptly to imbalances between currency supply and demand. That is why, even with more active demand from importers, the market is not showing chaotic fluctuations.
On the interbank market, the projected range for the dollar will be 44.4–45 UAH, while on the cash market it will be 44.5–45 UAH.
What will the euro exchange rate be?
As for the European currency, the baseline forecast calls for a range of 51–52.5 UAH.
According to the expert, the euro exchange rate is traditionally influenced by two factors: the hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate and the situation on the international currency market, particularly the euro/dollar pair.
If global market conditions do not change drastically, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine will remain within the projected range.
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The fuel factor could become the main risk
According to Lesovoy, the greatest risk to the hryvnia right now is linked not so much to the currency market itself as to fuel.
He explains that fuel prices directly affect import demand, logistics costs, transportation, and overall inflation expectations. If global prices or fuel supply issues increase pressure on the market, importers may need more foreign currency.
At the same time, the banker emphasizes that there is no basis for talking about a systemic fuel shortage. Following the experience of 2022, the Ukrainian market has become significantly more resilient, and import routes are fully established. However, local difficulties with the operation of individual gas stations or logistics may temporarily affect prices and consumer behavior.
The NBU may become more active in the interbank market
Despite the expected exchange rate stability, the coming week is unlikely to be entirely risk-free.
According to Lesovoy’s assessment, if demand for foreign currency significantly exceeds supply, the National Bank may increase its currency interventions. In that case, their total volume could approach $900 million per week.
The cash market will continue to be guided by the interbank exchange rate. Therefore, the expert does not currently foresee a significant gap between the rates offered by banks, currency exchange offices, and the interbank market.
According to the banker, the main task in the coming days will remain preventing local risks from escalating into widespread exchange rate volatility.
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