Small and medium-sized dairy farms in Ukraine may disappear by 2035
4 August 11:38
Over the past year, the country has lost one-fifth of its cattle herd
The cattle herd in Ukraine continues to shrink, although industrial dairy farms have remained relatively stable so far. The brunt of the impact is being felt by household farms and small farms, which are operating amid low milk purchase prices, rising production costs, and the effects of the war. This was reported by the Association of Milk Producers (AVM), citing preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, according to
As of July 1, 2026, there were 1.767 million head of cattle in Ukraine, of which 941,200 were cows. Over the course of the year, the total herd decreased by 403,000 head, or 19%, while the number of cows fell by 205,000, or 18%.
At the same time, more than half of the total herd—54%—is already held by industrial enterprises, while private households account for 46%.
The private sector is shrinking rapidly
Despite the overall decline, the industrial sector is showing positive growth. Over the past year, the number of cattle on agricultural enterprises increased by 4%—to 955,2 thousand head—and the cow population also grew by 4%—to 396,6 thousand.
In contrast, the situation on private farms remains critical. Over the past year, the number of cattle there has decreased by 35%, and the number of cows by 29%. As of early July, the private sector held only 811,800 head of cattle.
“The decline in the cattle herd is a long-standing problem in Ukraine due to the lack of an effective government program to support dairy farming. Since 2014, the number of cows in Ukraine’s commercial and backyard farming sectors has fallen by nearly two-thirds. The situation has been exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale invasion and unfavorable market conditions,” the Milk Producers Association noted.
According to the association, additional pressure on the industry is being exerted by rising costs of fertilizers, energy, and logistics, as well as the need to adapt production to the European Union’s environmental and phytosanitary requirements. In addition, farms in frontline regions are forced to relocate their livestock to safer areas.
Low Milk Prices
The Association of Milk Producers emphasizes that milk production has become economically unprofitable for many farms today, as purchase prices do not cover production costs.
“Low prices for raw milk and rising production costs are prompting farmers to sell their livestock while beef prices remain high in export markets. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has increased its exports of live cattle by 11.5%,” the association explained.
At the same time, analysts warn that without structural changes, the situation can only worsen.
“If Ukraine does not modernize its dairy processing plants by 2035 to enable more advanced milk processing and if these plants do not begin purchasing milk at higher prices, then small and medium-sized farms—which currently account for about 40% of the total livestock population— may disappear from the market. Given the low purchase prices, they are among the least protected market participants,” the UDA stated.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, an increase in the number of cows on commercial farms was recorded in 12 regions over the past year.
The highest growth rates were recorded in Rivne (21%), Lviv (20%), Ternopil (15%), and Kharkiv (15%) regions.
The largest commercial cow herds are traditionally concentrated in Poltava Oblast (52,800 head), Cherkasy (46,000), Chernihiv (38,800), Kyiv (35,600), and Vinnytsia (33,000) regions. These five regions alone account for more than half of all cows in the country’s commercial sector.
As reported by "Komersant Ukrainian", Ukrainian dairy farms have reached the EU’s average productivity despite the war.
