The “Coalition of the Willing” May Cease to Exist: What This Means for Ukraine
3 August 05:17
Europe risks losing two key architects of support for Ukraine— Starmer has already stepped down, and Macron will not be able to run in the next French election. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian", citing The Telegraph.
Diplomats’ main concern is Macron’s impending departure—the French president is set to leave office after next year’s election, and there is no obvious successor who would continue his course.
The bookmakers’ favorite is far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has promised to withdraw France from NATO’s military command, lift sanctions against Russia, and force Kyiv to agree to peace on Moscow’s terms. Her rival on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has gone even further, promising a complete withdrawal from the Western alliance.
According to a source cited by The Telegraph, British officials are already assessing what a victory for either of them would mean for the future of the coalition and the sharing of classified intelligence. A Western official explicitly warned of a “major problem” for NATO in such a scenario.
The most obvious candidate to replace Macron, alongside Britain, is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is reforming the Bundeswehr into Europe’s largest army. But Merz himself is mired in a domestic crisis and is increasingly facing doubts about how much longer he will remain in office.
A member of his own party, Roderich Kiesewetter, a former colonel, called the CDU leader “no Churchill.” According to him, both the CDU and the Social Democrats are plagued by the so-called “Moscow connection”—some members of both ruling parties are ready to return to normal relations with Russia once the war ends.
This, according to the lawmaker, explains why Merz is holding onto the Taurus long-range missiles and not confiscating Russia’s “shadow fleet” vessels.
“Merz must also fight this Moscow connection,” Kisevetter stated.
The chancellor also thwarted EU attempts to ban the free movement of Russian diplomats within the Schengen Zone and refused to close Berlin’s “Russian House”—a cultural center believed to be a front for a network of Moscow spies.
“That’s not leadership. Who, then, can lead Europe? We need a Churchill. We’ve had a few ‘Churchill moments,’ but Europe doesn’t have its own Churchill yet,” the lawmaker concluded, warning that the West’s indifference could force the Ukrainian government to seek support from other powers in the region.
Poland and Italy are also unlikely to fill the vacuum: both leaders— Donald Tusk and Giorgia Meloni —have refused to send troops to Ukraine and face elections by the end of next year, so they are not in a position to claim the role of Europe’s new leaders.
Starmer’s successor, Andy Burnham, has a firmer grip on domestic policy but limited experience in foreign affairs. He held his first meeting with a foreign leader in his new role with Zelenskyy, hosting him in Portsmouth—thereby signaling to allies that the course of supporting Ukraine and NATO will remain unchanged.
It was the Starmer-Macron partnership that, in its time, overcame the long-standing disputes between London and Paris in the interest of shared leadership in Europe—against the backdrop of Trump’s indifference—by uniting more than 30 countries in support of Ukraine and the plan to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
While Starmer’s departure was accompanied by recognition of his achievements, Macron’s exit will likely be viewed with much greater concern—unless Burnam manages to single-handedly assume the role of leader of the “coalition of the willing.”
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