Putin has only one trump card: what really lies behind the Kremlin’s threats to destroy Kyiv
28 May 10:02
ANALYSIS
Russia is preparing for another round of heavy shelling of Ukraine’s capital. This time, the Kremlin has opted to act through direct diplomatic threats: during talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio , Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on American diplomats to leave Kyiv. The EU delegation has already responded, calling this an “unacceptable escalation,” and officially stated that the European diplomatic delegation will remain in the city. What is really behind these statements, and is Russia capable of a fundamentally new escalation?
Political analyst and Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Tkachuk is convinced that talk of “even more systematic” and “most massive” strikes is primarily an attempt to intimidate Ukrainian society and Western leaders in order to force Ukraine to make concessions.
“I believe this is merely a matter of informational and psychological pressure on us and our partners. On our society, with the aim of persuading us to surrender Donbas. In other words, this is the Russians’ maximum program in this regard, and I am more than convinced of this,” Andriy Tkachuk emphasizes.
Russia’s actual capabilities: missiles “off the assembly line”
The expert urges relying on cold, hard analysis and comparing the current intimidation tactics with what Ukraine has already endured. The Russian military-industrial complex is operating at its limits, and they are simply unable to stockpile an endless supply of missiles.
“If we look at May of last year, the Russians were striking just as actively—there were more massive shelling campaigns involving missiles and ballistic strikes during that period, roughly from May 1 to May 25. If we consider the missiles Russia produces, their capacity to manufacture them within a single month is quite limited. This amounts to a few dozen cruise missiles and a few dozen ballistic missiles that they can produce each month,” explains the Ukrainian Armed Forces major.
Public threats are not intelligence, but a game of interests
On why Ukrainians shouldn’t panic, what cards Moscow has left to play, and what game Alexander Lukashenko is playing, in a comment
According to the military expert, if there were a real and critical threat, Ukraine’s partners would use entirely different channels of communication. The current “leaks,” however, have a completely different purpose.
“When there is some intelligence information that a state wants to convey to its ally, this is not done in the public sphere. There are absolutely clear and understandable mechanisms for this: either direct contacts between the leaders of the countries, or through the intelligence services,” says Tamar.
When we see such disinformation campaigns in the public sphere, there are always state interests behind them that want to divert public attention from something more important.
Grigory Tamar notes that two opposing and equally false narratives constantly circulate in the information space: on the one hand, that Russia is about to run out of missiles; on the other, that it possesses a “secret weapon” capable of destroying Ukraine with a single strike. However, the reality is different.
“There is no act of stupidity or meanness that Russia and the Russian army would not commit. They will do everything they are capable of; they won’t miss a single opportunity. But at the same time—everything they could do, short of using nuclear weapons, they have already done. They have no tricks up their sleeves. Talk that ‘we haven’t even started yet’ isn’t even a joke anymore,” said Grigory Tamar.
According to an IDF officer’s assessment, the Kremlin has only two theoretical mechanisms left to try to turn the tide of the war:
- Nuclear weapons. However, the recent failed tests of Russian intercontinental missiles cast serious doubt on the actual state of this capability.
- Total mobilization. Russia may try to carry it out and send troops either through Belarus or into the Baltic states. However, the Ukrainian General Staff is well aware of this and is taking measures, so there will be no element of surprise.
“All the other missiles—all the ‘Oreshniks,’ pears, and apple trees—have already been fired at Ukraine. They’ve already tried to freeze you out and starve you. Ukraine stands and fights. The President is in the Office, gas stations have fuel, bakeries have bread. And four and a half years ago, they said, ‘We’ll be in Kyiv in three days.’ Yes, it’s very hard, terrifyingly hard. But the country is fighting,” says Tamar.
Thus, the current wave of diplomatic blackmail from the Kremlin and threats of “massive strikes” is yet another information and psychological operation aimed at intimidating Ukrainians and forcing them to surrender Donbas. As military experts confidently assert, Putin has effectively been left with only one real—though highly dubious—trump card: nuclear blackmail. Meanwhile, all of Russia’s conventional military resources are already stretched to their limits, and the missile industry is literally operating “off the assembly line.” Russia today resembles an exhausted heavyweight pretending to be strong in the hope of psychologically breaking Ukraine; however, the iron resolve of the Defense Forces, parity in the skies, and the calm of society once again reduce the enemy’s intentions to nothing.
