Flights are being canceled, planes are grounded: why the aviation industry is under pressure
17 April 11:15
The European aviation industry is under intense pressure due to the jet fuel crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Against the backdrop of a sharp rise in kerosene prices, major airlines have begun massively cutting flights, reducing capacity, and grounding aircraft. According to The Guardian, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has predicted massive cuts in air travel if oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are not fully restored in the near future, reports "Komersant Ukrainian"
Europe’s largest carriers are already speaking openly about the problems, and experts warn that under current conditions, jet fuel reserves may last only a few weeks.
Why airlines are canceling flights
The main reason for the massive cuts is the aviation fuel crisis amid the events surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Due to supply complications, aviation fuel prices in Europe have more than doubled since the start of the war in the Middle East on February 28.
Although no actual fuel shortage has been recorded yet, its high cost is already forcing airlines to reevaluate the economics of their flights. First and foremost, carriers are abandoning less profitable routes and accelerating the retirement of older and less efficient aircraft, writes Politico.
How much jet fuel is left in Europe
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, stated that Europe has about six weeks’ worth of jet fuel reserves left.
Meanwhile, the European Council of International Airports has outlined an even more alarming scenario: according to some estimates, jet fuel reserves may last only three weeks.
If supplies are not restored, airlines will be forced to continue canceling flights and reducing their flight schedules.
What Lufthansa Decided
Lufthansa was one of the first to announce major decisions. The company reported that it will completely ground the fleet of 27 aircraft operated by its subsidiary CityLine as early as this coming weekend.
Although this phase-out had been planned earlier, the company has now decided to implement it ahead of schedule due to the current crisis. CityLine primarily serves hubs in Frankfurt and Munich, connecting them with other European destinations.
In addition, Lufthansa will retire four Airbus A340-600s and two Boeing 747-400s from its long-haul fleet by October. The company also announced additional capacity cuts in the 2026–2027 winter schedule, reducing the fleet by another five aircraft.
In total, this amounts to a reduction of 38 aircraft.
Why Lufthansa is reducing its fleet
The company explained that this step became inevitable due to the sharp rise in jet fuel costs and general geopolitical instability.
Lufthansa also noted that about 80% of its fuel needs are hedged at above-average oil prices, but the remaining 20% must be purchased at significantly higher market prices. It is this most expensive portion of costs that the company aims to reduce by approximately 10%.
Costs associated with recent strikes have also added to the pressure.
Which flights is KLM canceling?
Shortly after Lufthansa’s announcement, KLM also reported cuts. The company stated that in May it will operate 80 fewer round-trip flights from Schiphol Airport.
According to the carrier, the cuts will affect routes with multiple daily flights, including those to London and Düsseldorf. Overall, this represents less than 1% of the company’s total European flights during the relevant period, but even this step indicates significant financial pressure due to fuel costs.
Separately, it was also reported that at least 160 flights will be canceled over the next month.
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How the crisis is hitting easyJet and airBaltic
The problem of rising fuel prices is affecting not only traditional carriers but also low-cost airlines.
easyJet stated that its fuel costs rose by nearly €29 million in March alone. As a result, pre-tax losses for the six months ending in March could rise to €620–640 million, compared to €450 million a year earlier.
The situation is also difficult for Latvia’s airBaltic. The company is in a critical situation and relies on financial support. Amid the fuel crisis, the Latvian government approved a €30 million loan for the carrier.
Although airBaltic’s problems began even before the war in the Middle East, rising fuel prices are significantly increasing pressure on the company’s liquidity.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the key routes for global energy supplies. It is through this strait that a significant portion of oil and fuel logistics from the Persian Gulf region passes.
The closure of the strait has triggered an aviation fuel crisis that has already spilled over into the European aviation market. European refineries are estimated to be able to cover only about 70% of the aviation industry’s kerosene needs.
That is why the risks for airlines remain very high.
What the EU and the industry itself are saying
The European Commission is already considering a potential aviation fuel shortage as the main negative consequence of the U.S. war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Association of Large Air Carriers (A4E), which includes Lufthansa, Ryanair, Air France, and KLM, has called for the creation of a platform for joint aviation fuel procurement, similar to the one the EU used for natural gas. There are also calls for the establishment of mandatory kerosene reserves at the EU level.
At the same time, airlines are trying to secure a relaxation of certain green transition rules, particularly the ETS system, and are also seeking compensation for the price difference between conventional and eco-friendly fuel.
What’s Next for Flights in Europe
If jet fuel supplies do not resume in the near future, the market could face a new wave of flight cancellations and further fleet reductions. Airlines are already taking preemptive action, cutting unprofitable routes and reducing the number of aircraft in service.
Thus, the current situation may prove to be only the beginning of a larger crisis in European aviation if fuel and logistics issues persist.
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