The world’s leading cocoa producer forecasts a decline in the harvest: how will this affect the market?
21 August 12:48
Ghana expects a 13% decline in its cocoa harvest during the next agricultural season, which begins in September, due to unfavorable weather conditions and plant diseases.
Production is forecast to total 650,000 metric tons, compared with more than 750,000 metric tons harvested this season, according to Bloomberg, citing sources, as reported by [Komersant].
“The harvest in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s two leading producers of cocoa beans, is at risk due to unfavorable weather conditions; in particular, the possible return of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which could lead to severe flooding or drought. The torrential rains of recent weeks have also increased the risk of plant diseases, especially in areas where farmers are unable to apply proper chemical treatments,” the report states.
Cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire in the 2026/27 agricultural year could decline by 11%—to 1.8 million metric tons, according to a forecast by StoneX Group Inc.
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According to Hedgepoint Global Markets, the global cocoa surplus next season will be about 111,000 metric tons, compared with 325,000 metric tons this season. This will be driven by a 2% decline in production and a 2.5% increase in demand, according to Reuters.
In the previous agricultural year, the world recorded a deficit of 58,000 metric tons.
Cocoa prices fell below $3,000 per metric ton in February of this year from a record high of approximately $13,000 at the end of 2024. Currently, they are trading at around $6,000 per metric ton, while the downward revision of the harvest forecast could contribute to a rise in prices, experts note.
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