New bus registrations plummeted in April: what’s happening in the market
21 May 15:51
April statistics on bus and minibus registrations in Ukraine clearly show that capital investments in passenger transport have been temporarily put on hold. While the domestic market and imports of used vehicles are showing moderate annual growth, the new vehicle segment has experienced a real collapse. This is reported by the Automotive Market Research Institute, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Domestic resale remains the main driving force of the passenger sector. In April, 326 buses were registered under new ownership. Despite a slight seasonal decline compared to March (-5.0%), this segment grew by 10.1% year-over-year.
The absolute leader in domestic resales is the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter (96 units), which serves as a versatile vehicle on both urban and suburban routes. The next positions are shared by classic Ukrainian-made mid-range frame buses—the BAZ/CHAZ A079 “Etalon” (22 units) and the Bogdan/Ataman A-092 (18 units).
“The old European mass-market models, such as the Volkswagen LT and the Ruta 25 city buses, round out the first part of the ranking, confirming that private carriers continue to operate these vehicles until their internal combustion engines are completely worn out,” the report states.
According to analysts, 326 buses changed hands on the domestic market in April. Despite a slight seasonal decline compared to March (-5%), this segment grew by 10.1% year-over-year.
The absolute leader in domestic resales is the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter (96 units), which serves as a versatile vehicle on both urban and suburban routes.
“The next positions are shared by classic Ukrainian-made mid-range frame buses—BAZ/ChAZ A079 “Etalon” (22 units) and Bogdan/Ataman A-092 (18 units). At the same time, 108 used buses were imported, which is practically the same as in March (0.9%), but 10.2% higher than in April of last year,” the report states.
The top three are the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter (35 units), Mercedes-Benz Vario (11 units), and Volkswagen Crafter (11 units).
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In addition, new Ukrainian-made buses fell by −55.1% over the month (a total of 22 units), while new imports plummeted by −71.9% (a symbolic 16 units).
In the overall ranking of new vehicles (domestic and imported combined), the BAZ A081 “Etalon” took first place with 10 units. It is followed by the commercial Ford Transit (6 units) and the large city buses Isuzu Citiport (5 units), experts report.
Imports of used buses
According to experts, the segment of new passenger vehicle imports in April showed a complete lull: 108 imported units, which practically mirrors the March result (0.9% MoM), but exceeds last April’s figures by 10.2%.
“Here, the structure of the leaders almost completely mirrors domestic trends: the top three are the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter (35 units), the Mercedes-Benz Vario (11 units), and the Volkswagen Crafter (11 units). The large tourist and intercity class is represented by a limited selection: the Mercedes-Benz Tourismo, Setra 400-Series, and VDL Synergy double-decker coaches were sold in modest quantities of 4 units each,” the report states.
Carriers import vehicles exclusively for specific commercial tasks or regular international routes, avoiding the creation of inventory.
New buses
According to analysts, the most dramatic developments occurred in the new vehicle sector. Here, the market faced a total collapse in demand. New Ukrainian-made buses fell by −55.1% (a total of 22 units), while new imports plummeted by −71.9% month-over-month (a symbolic 16 units).
“In the overall ranking of new vehicles (domestic and imported combined), the BAZ A081 ‘Etalon’ took first place with 10 units. It is followed by the commercial Ford Transit (6 units) and the large city buses Isuzu Citiport (5 units),” the report states.
The rest of the list consists of isolated registrations of models from ZAZ, Ataman, and Otokar, as well as isolated units from local body shops (such as Avtosnab or STM), which retrofit imported chassis for specific needs.
The sharp drop in new bus registrations in April is not a random fluctuation but a clear sign that major government and municipal tenders have concluded. Since the Ukrainian market for new passenger vehicles is almost entirely dependent on government procurement (the “School Bus” program, the renewal of municipal fleets, etc.), a pause in funding or the closure of major contracts instantly cuts factory output figures in half, and imports by nearly three-quarters, experts conclude.
“Private business is currently entirely focused on pragmatism. Given current fuel prices, carriers simply do not risk investing in expensive new vehicles, whose payback period tends toward infinity due to low fare rates,” the report states.
According to analysts, instead of buying new buses, operators are patching up old “Etalons” or purchasing used Mercedes-Benz Sprinters, which, provided their engines receive quality maintenance, are capable of generating a stable cash flow right now, without long-term leasing obligations. The passenger transport market has shifted into a wait-and-see mode for new investment signals, relying solely on the resources of old, proven equipment, analysts conclude.
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