Ukraine in pharmacy figures: how the pharmaceutical market revealed the true extent of demographic decline
28 February 13:14
The full-scale war has changed not only the geography of the front line, but also the demographic map of the country. In a situation where no official census is being conducted and a significant portion of the statistics are classified for security reasons, finding real figures is a difficult task. Ukrainian economist Oleg Belinsky proposes a non-trivial approach—estimating the population based on the consumption of medicines. In his social media post, he carefully calculated the figures and put forward his hypothesis about the actual population of Ukraine, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
“The lack of an official census and closed statistics during the war create a data vacuum. However, medicine does not lie,” he notes.
The analysis is based on the “big three” of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market — Farmak, Darnitsa, and Arterium. It is not about monetary indicators, which are distorted by inflation and price increases, but about physical volumes — the number of packages of medicines sold.
“We do not take into account revenues in hryvnia, as they are inflated by inflation and price increases. We look exclusively at the natural indicator — the number of packages of medicines sold. This is directly correlated with the number of people physically present in the country,” explains the economist.
The dynamics are striking. The largest manufacturer, Farmak, which sold about 110 million packages in 2020, lost approximately 32% of its physical sales in five years. The deepest decline occurred in 2022 — minus 22% — as a result of the shock of war, loss of warehouses, and mass migration. However, the years 2024–2025 are also indicative, when the decline continued at 4–5% annually. This means that stabilization is already occurring at a significantly lower base.
Darnitsa, which is traditionally strong in the affordable drug segment, held out longer than others. In 2022, the decline was 13%, which was less than that of its competitors, thanks in particular to the saturation of the market with inexpensive drugs for the volunteer sector. However, in 2024, the company recorded a decline of 8%, and the total reduction over five years reached 31%. When even the budget segment declines, it indicates the departure of mass consumers—the middle class and young people.
Arterium Corporation lost the most — about 34% over a five-year period. The company traditionally has a strong position in the hospital sector and in the antibiotics segment. Such a rapid decline may indicate not only a decrease in population, but also the degradation of planned medicine and a reduction in the number of patients in hospitals.
The weighted average decline for the three manufacturers is about 32%. If we apply this figure to the pre-war base of approximately 35 million people (calculated based on drug consumption), we get about 24 million people in 2025–2026.
“This figure of 24 million is most likely our real base. These are the people who go to pharmacies every day in the controlled territory,” Belinsky emphasizes.
He calls the difference between the official estimates of over 30 million and the calculated 24 million a “demographic debt” — these are people under occupation, refugees abroad, and those who have effectively dropped out of the country’s economic cycle.
Ultimately, this is not just about a crisis in the pharmaceutical market.
“We are seeing more than just a crisis in the pharmaceutical market. We are seeing the physical contraction of the country to a size that the state and business have not yet had time to realize,” the economist concludes.
And this conclusion raises questions for Ukraine not only about economic recovery, but also about long-term demographic strategy.
Source: Facebook.
