The war in Ukraine will most likely end with a ceasefire rather than a peace agreement, says a Dutch diplomat
17 August 06:12
Robert Serri, the first Dutch ambassador to Ukraine from 1992 to 1996, stated that Russia’s war against Ukraine will most likely end with a ceasefire rather than a peace agreement. He made these remarks in an interview with Ukrinform, as reported by [Komersant].
“It will most likely end with a ceasefire, not a peace treaty. This is a very important distinction. I consider it unlikely that, after everything that has happened, Russia and Ukraine will be able to conclude a full-fledged peace treaty. The best we can hope for is a lasting ceasefire,” he said.
According to him, “if we look at historical examples, major wars have often ended with a ceasefire rather than a peace treaty, such as between North and South Korea or between India and Pakistan. I find the example of India and Pakistan particularly interesting, where a non-aggression pact was signed after the war. I think such a non-aggression pact would be very important for Ukraine as well, if it seeks membership in the EU and, in the future, perhaps in NATO. These organizations cannot accept a state that reserves the right to resume hostilities. Therefore, this involves a commitment to resolve territorial disputes solely through peaceful means.
At the same time, he cautioned against a repeat of the Minsk agreements.
“This must not be another ‘Minsk.’ In ‘Minsk,’ Ukraine was required to make unilateral concessions, amend the Constitution, and so on. I very much hope that the war will not end with a repeat of the ‘Minsk scenario.’ Instead, we need a ceasefire that is effectively monitored. For me, one of the main lessons of ‘Minsk’ is that a weak monitoring mechanism makes any ceasefire fragile. Therefore, the future ceasefire regime must be truly reliable. After that, the war will stop. And I am less pessimistic than others about the possibility that Russia will start a new war sooner or later. But on one condition—Ukraine and its army must remain strong. That is something we cannot afford to lose,” he said.
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