Producers predict that butter prices will rise in the fall
18 August 12:00
August 2026 marked a turning point for the Ukrainian dairy market. After a period of uncertainty, the butter market has finally stabilized, and the wave of low prices is coming to an end. According tothe analyticalagency Infagro, despite significant inventory levels, Ukrainian producers have stopped selling their products at rock-bottom prices and are preparing for an autumn price hike, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
“Some companies are boosting sales of packaged butter through promotions, while others are anticipating price increases in the fall. Cheap offers on the domestic market are becoming fewer, and the lower end of the price range has effectively stabilized,” the report states.
Market experts note that the lower end of the price range has already been established, and the number of budget-friendly offers on the domestic market is rapidly declining. This is merely a precursor to the fall price hike, which will affect both packaged products in supermarkets and raw materials for the food industry.
Demand in the EU and Exports: What Is Driving Price Increases
The main driver of changes in the Ukrainian market is the positive trend in European markets. Butter exports to the EU have strengthened, which immediately pushed up prices in Ukraine.
“Ukrainian butter exports rose significantly in July, primarily due to shipments to the EU and Israel. Packaged butter has traditionally accounted for a significant share of exports, which is a positive sign for trade in products with higher added value,” the report states.
As analysts note, a key trend has been the increase in the share of packaged butter with higher added value, rather than just raw materials.
At the same time, as noted in the report, the projected decline in exports of vegetable-cream blends did not materialize. Sales of these products even increased slightly thanks to shipments to post-Soviet countries, while exports to the Middle East declined.
The Ukrainian market also features significant volumes of imported butter, primarily inexpensive packaged products from Poland and Lithuania.
“Overall, the butter market is entering the fall without any obvious signs of further price declines. Producers are increasingly counting on improved opportunities to sell their products to EU countries,” the report states.
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What Awaits Consumers in the Fall of 2026
Currently, some Ukrainian producers are trying to sell off remaining inventory through short-term promotions. However, there are no signs of further price drops for butter.
With the onset of fall, prices in Europe are expected to rise further, making exports to the EU even more profitable for Ukrainian dairy processors. This will inevitably lead to a reduction in domestic supply and an increase in retail prices at local chains.
As analysts note, there is also fierce competition in Ukraine’s domestic market: supermarkets are well-stocked with imported packaged butter from Poland and Lithuania, which is currently holding back a sharp price spike in the budget segment.
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