Which Fruits and Berries Will Get Cheaper by the End of Summer: An Analyst’s Forecast
18 July 16:07
Significant changes in the prices of seasonal fruits and berries are expected in Ukraine by the end of summer. Peaches and watermelons may become significantly cheaper, while strawberries, on the other hand, are likely to become more expensive as the season comes to an end. Maksym Hopka, an analyst at the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), told Delo.ua about this, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Which fruits and berries will drop in price
By the end of summer, the price situation on the market for fruits, berries, and melons will depend primarily on seasonality and weather conditions, Gopka noted.
The most significant price drop is expected for peaches: their peak supply will occur in the second half of July through the first half of August, so prices may fall by 10–15% from current levels during this period.
The average price for peaches in supermarkets is currently about 114 UAH/kg.
“Cucurbits—watermelons and cantaloupes—will also traditionally become cheaper, as open-field produce will flood the market in August, which could lead to a 20–30% drop in prices by the end of summer,” the analyst said.
The average price for watermelons in supermarkets is currently about 50 UAH/kg, and for cantaloupes, about 122.38 UAH/kg.
Apricots, strawberries, raspberries: how much will their prices rise?
At the same time, some fruits and berries, on the contrary, will become more expensive.
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Apricots are already at their seasonal price low, and after the mass harvest ends in late July, they may become more expensive; then, supply will dwindle and the price will depend on storage conditions, Gopka said.
“Strawberries and other summer berries also traditionally rise in price to 180 UAH per kilogram after the peak season ends,” the analyst explained.
Raspberries and blueberries will remain in the high-price segment without any significant price drops due to the negative impact of spring frosts and summer heat on the harvest.
Apple prices will also remain high, as the market currently depends on last year’s harvest stocks in storage and export demand; therefore, there are currently no conditions for a noticeable price drop by the end of July, the expert said.
According to the Ministry of Finance, as of July 14, the average monthly price for apples in Ukraine is 52.79 UAH/kg.
Which Ukrainian fruits and berries have been most vulnerable to weather conditions this year
The biggest blow to fruit growing came from the temperature anomalies in March, when a warm spell (16–18°C) was followed by a cold snap (down to -4°C), Gopka noted.
The most vulnerable crops were:
- Apricots (suffered the most): they were the first to bloom due to the March warmth. At the time of the frosts, the trees were in their most sensitive phase (open flowers or young ovaries die at temperatures as low as -1…-2.5°C);
- Peaches: also suffered significant losses due to early blooming, although overall they weathered the frosts slightly better than apricots;
- Raspberries and blueberries: For these crops, spring frosts and the subsequent summer heat dealt a double blow, negatively affecting both yield and berry quality.
Will there be a shortage of fruits and berries on the domestic market?
No shortage is expected, as the crops weathered the spring frosts better than pessimistic scenarios had predicted. However, production volumes on the market will be uneven—the situation varies depending on the region, variety, and current weather conditions, the analyst concluded.
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