Zelenskyy spoke about the recaptured territories: an expert weighed in on whether a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is possible this year
24 April 09:23
OPINION
Against the backdrop of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statements that the territorial balance on the front lines has shifted in Ukraine’s favor, and that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have recaptured more territory than they have lost since the beginning of the year, experts have speculated on whether a new large-scale counteroffensive and the final liberation of the occupied territories are possible in the near future. The military, for its part, has outlined the recipe for victory and is calling for a prolonged and bloody “concrete defense.”
What is really behind the “positive balance” on the front lines—strategic success or the calm before a new storm? Will Ukraine manage to replace 30% of its ground forces with vehicles before the enemy completely razes the villages near the front lines to the ground? And what could be the real recipe for stopping the Russian invasion?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuted the Kremlin’s claims of occupying over 700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. While Russian media outlets report on “successes,” the President of Ukraine cites figures on de-occupation, which, according to him, outweigh the losses.
“Taking into account the occupied and de-occupied territory since the start of this year, the balance is not in Russia’s favor, but in Ukraine’s. Ukraine has regained control of more square kilometers of its land than it has lost. The front line is very much alive—that’s the truth,” Zelenskyy bluntly concluded.
According to the President, Ukrainian troops have maintained a “stable formation” for 10 months now, though he acknowledges that the skies over the front line belong to the UAVs. The only path to gaining the upper hand, in the opinion of the Presidential Office, is “quick decisions and increased funding for the production of various types of drones.”
Is a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Defense Forces possible?
Behind the optimistic reports on the territorial balance lies the main problem of the war, one that cannot be solved by money alone. Military expert Ivan Stupak commented
“The key limiting factor for any new counteroffensive is the shortage of personnel. First and foremost, it’s not even about missiles—there simply aren’t enough people to launch an offensive,” says Stupak.
The expert paints a grim picture of the Ukrainian rear, which directly affects the army’s ability to regain its positions.
“There are a huge number of simply empty villages where there are simply no people. That is why I am certain that a counteroffensive is out of the question right now. The main thing is how to stop Russia’s advance,” notes Stupak.
Watch us on YouTube: important topics – without censorship
Betting on robots: Will machines replace humans?
Kyiv is trying to fill the “manpower gap” with technology. Stupak confirms the General Staff’s ambitions: Ukraine aims to deploy approximately 30% of these ground-based robotic systems by the end of the year for use by the ground forces. However, this will not help reclaim territory.
“It’s a big, ambitious goal, but without a presence on the ground, no airstrikes or drone attacks can reclaim our territories,” says Stupak.
Although they manage to push back the enemy in certain locations, it is the assault units doing this, and their heroism has its limits.
“They don’t have the number of troops we’d like, and it’s true, they’re suffering losses, so large-scale offensive operations aren’t on the table right now. Localized ones—yes, but not large-scale ones,” the expert concludes.
Read us on Telegram: important topics – without censorship
What are the military saying?
Desperate assaults, a war of robots, and an urgent need for “fresh blood.” Ukrainian officers and well-known frontline bloggers paint a realistic picture of the war through their social media posts.
Signs of stabilization have appeared on the southern front. A senior lieutenant in the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the call sign “Alex” reports cautious successes in the Stepnogorsk and Huliaipole areas, where the enemy previously held the upper hand.
“In the Zaporizhzhia sector, we are gradually regaining lost positions… The steppes of Zaporizhzhia are an unearthly paradise for drone operations, and in this regard, we vastly outnumber the enemy,” writes “Alex.”
According to him, the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) are making life a living hell for the enemy every night, destroying air defense systems and personnel deployment sites.
At the same time, Ukrainian Armed Forces Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Zhorin, call sign “Moses,” deputy commander of the 3rd Army Corps, urges the nation and allies to take off their “rose-colored glasses.” He is certain: no single missile or aircraft will change the course of the war on its own.
“We’re looking for a single magic solution… from F-16s to long-range missiles. But the truth is, it doesn’t exist. The ‘recipe for success’ is exclusively a set of measures,” Zhorin asserts.
His plan for victory is simple arithmetic:
- Elimination: 50,000 occupiers per month.
- Concrete defense: Stopping the enemy at the current front line for at least a few months to change the “tone of the conversation.”
- Economic terror: Strikes on Russian territory to destroy industrial facilities.
However, Ukraine’s technological advantage faces a “scorched earth” tactic. Stanislav Bunyatov (“Osman”) warns : where Ukrainian Armed Forces drones prevent the occupiers from advancing, the Russians simply wipe villages off the face of the earth with aerial bombs.
“Where the enemy regularly suffers setbacks, villages are being razed to the ground… Gray zones that we cannot reach around the clock with low-cost weapons are gradually falling under enemy control,” explains Bunyatov.
He also adds that summer has brought a new problem—dense vegetation (“greenery”), which allows small enemy groups to slip unnoticed through positions, making the concept of “strike zones” relative.
One of the most pressing issues was raised by the well-known frontline public group “Bakhmut Demon.” Amid discussions about the difficult mobilization, military personnel are calling on the state to take radical steps—the mass recruitment of foreign mercenaries.
“We need mercenaries for the war. If we can recruit them from Africa, or anywhere else—as long as fewer Ukrainians are forced to sit in positions for months on end—everyone will support this,” the post reads.
The author sharply criticizes those who fear “migrants,” emphasizing that there is no room for “selection” in a total war. The state should be interested in fighting with mercenaries to protect its own people, the blogger concludes.
Read us on Telegram: important topics – without censorship
