Gasoline at 90 hryvnias: An expert explains whether there are grounds for such a price
16 July 16:09
FORECAST
Claims that the price of gasoline in Ukraine could rise to 90 hryvnias per liter have no economic basis. This opinion was expressed by energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev in a comment to "Komersant Ukrainian"; he believes that such reports are an attempt to prepare Ukrainians for a possible price increase, rather than a realistic forecast of market developments.
According to the expert, talk of gasoline at 90 hryvnias is not the result of objective economic calculations.
“These aren’t forecasts; they’re what Russians call ‘wishful thinking,’” he emphasized.
In his view, major fuel market operators are interested in increasing their profits, so they are gradually shaping public expectations of an inevitable price hike.
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As Ryabtsev explains, one of the reasons cited for such statements is the growing tension in the Middle East and fluctuations in global oil prices. However, he is convinced that these factors cannot automatically justify a significant increase in prices at Ukrainian gas stations.
The expert points out that large Ukrainian gas station chains traditionally factor virtually all possible risks into the retail price of fuel. As a result, even if there is only a potential threat of rising prices for petroleum products, it is immediately passed on to consumers.
“The end consumer is the only one who has to pay for these risks. The business has decided it doesn’t want to take any risks,” Ryabtsev noted.
At the same time, he said, European companies operate on entirely different principles. They insure against risks, set aside appropriate reserves, and diversify their supply sources, rather than offsetting any potential losses solely at the expense of drivers.
According to the expert, the current situation in Ukraine is conducive to price increases also due to weak government oversight. He believes that the change in government, the parliamentary recess, and the ineffective work of the Antimonopoly Committee create conditions under which large operators can act virtually unhindered.
“These are just wishful thinking; there are no objective reasons behind them,” the expert emphasized, adding that such a pricing policy is a purely Ukrainian peculiarity and differs significantly from European practice.
Ryabtsev also sharply criticized the work of government agencies, which, in his view, are not responding adequately to the situation on the fuel market. He believes that unchecked increases in fuel prices only fuel inflation, which is particularly dangerous amid the war and the difficult economic situation.
The expert also highlighted the differences between Ukraine’s government policy and that of European countries. According to him, during the spring and summer, European governments sought to curb demand for fuel using various economic mechanisms. In Ukraine, however, he is convinced that certain government decisions, on the contrary, stimulated consumption.
In conclusion, Gennadiy Ryabtsev stated that reports about a possible sharp rise in gasoline prices are primarily a way to prepare the public for future price increases.
“In general, these are just rumors, a way to prepare the public for the fact that they will have to pay more for fuel—and without any real basis,” the expert concluded.
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