Electric car sales have soared by 35%: what has changed in the global market
13 August 07:50
Global sales of electric vehicles rebounded sharply after a slow start to 2026. In the second quarter, EV sales rose by 35% compared to January–March, and quarterly records were set in 50 countries.
This is according to a new study by the International Energy Agency — Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty —as reported by "Komersant Ukrainian"
How Much Have Electric Vehicle Sales Grown?
The 35% figure reflects growth compared to the first quarter of 2026, not compared to the same period last year. On a year-over-year basis, electric vehicle sales in the second quarter increased by 4%.
Due to a significant decline at the beginning of the year, total electric vehicle sales for January–June remained slightly lower than in the first half of 2025. However, the second quarter almost completely offset the previous decline.
More than 90 countries reported year-over-year growth in demand for electric vehicles in the first half of the year.
The market grew most notably in:
- Australia;
- Brazil;
- India;
- South Korea;
- Vietnam.
In these countries, electric vehicle sales in March–June roughly doubled compared to the same period in 2025.
Conventional cars are losing buyers
The recovery of the electric vehicle market is taking place against the backdrop of a general decline in the automotive industry. In the first six months of 2026, global sales of new cars fell by about 5% year-over-year.
The main reasons were:
- a decline in China’s automotive market;
- weaker demand in the United States;
- economic pressure on consumers;
- changes in government support programs;
- volatility in fuel prices.
In the first half of the year, electric vehicles accounted for 24% of all new cars sold worldwide. This is slightly more than a year earlier.
The share of electric vehicles could rise to 29%
According to the IEA’s updated forecast, electric vehicles will account for about 29% of global new car sales in 2026. This is one percentage point higher than the agency projected in its May report, Global EV Outlook 2026.
Consequently, nearly three out of every ten new cars sold worldwide during the year could be electric or plug-in hybrid models.
Overall, the IEA expects global sales of electric vehicles in 2026 to increase by approximately 10% compared to the previous year.
The forecast was revised upward due to:
- a strong recovery in the second quarter;
- government support in Europe;
- market expansion in Latin America;
- growing demand in Southeast Asia;
- countries’ efforts to reduce their dependence on imported oil.
How Oil Prices Affect Demand
Road transport accounts for nearly half of global oil consumption. Therefore, rising fuel prices and supply disruptions quickly change consumer behavior.
For countries that are heavily dependent on oil imports, the transition to electric vehicles is not only an environmental policy but also a way to strengthen energy security.
Increasing energy instability and fuel price volatility further stimulate demand for electric cars, especially in markets where charging infrastructure is already in place or subsidies are available.
What’s Happening in the Chinese Market
China remains the largest producer and market for electric vehicles, but domestic demand in the country has weakened sharply. Total car sales in China for the first half of the year fell by more than 20%, or approximately 2.5 million vehicles.
The IEA expects EV sales in China to remain roughly at 2025 levels by the end of 2026. This could mark the first decade without growth.
At the same time, the share of electric models in the Chinese market will exceed 60% and set a new record. In other words, the decline in sales is not due to buyers turning away from electric vehicles, but rather to an overall drop in demand for cars.
China Is Redirecting Cars Overseas
Against the backdrop of a weak domestic market, Chinese manufacturers have sharply increased exports. In the first half of 2026, total vehicle shipments abroad rose by 65%, while electric vehicle exports increased by more than 120%.
In six months, China exported nearly as many electric vehicles as it did in all of 2025. The share of electric models in China’s automotive exports rose from approximately 35% to over 45%.
However, overseas sales are not keeping pace with the rate of shipments. According to IEA estimates, over the past 18 months, more than one million electric vehicles exported from China have not yet been registered as sold in other countries.
Some of these vehicles may still be in transit, but the scale of the discrepancy also points to a buildup of inventory in destination markets.
Will Chinese Electric Vehicles Become Cheaper?
A surplus of unsold vehicles may force Chinese brands and dealers to step up efforts to stimulate demand. Likely tools for doing so will include:
- discounts and promotional prices;
- preferential financing;
- extended warranties;
- more affordable trim levels;
- faster rollout of new models;
- increased expansion into emerging markets.
The International Energy Agency does not forecast a direct collapse in prices. However, a surplus of over one million vehicles creates the conditions for fiercer competition and price pressure.
Chinese manufacturers have a significant advantage: according to the IEA, their production costs are approximately 35% lower than those of companies in developed economies. This allows them to offer lower prices while rapidly expanding their model lineup.
Who Will Control the Future Auto Market
Traditional automakers still account for about 98% of sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, but their share of the global electric vehicle market is only about 55%.
Chinese brands are gaining ground particularly rapidly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. It is China and other developing economies that could account for about 60% of global demand for cars over the next decade.
Therefore, future leadership will depend not only on sales in the U.S. or Europe. The decisive factors will be the price of electric vehicles, the availability of batteries, software, and manufacturers’ ability to gain a foothold in new markets.
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