Another two or three years of fighting: Zelenskyy orders preparations for a protracted war – media reports
27 May 14:18
The Ukrainian government has begun preparing for a protracted war. According to The Economist, citing government sources, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered preparations for another two to three years of hostilities, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the publication, at the beginning of the year, Kyiv expected that negotiations mediated by the U.S. could lead to a temporary agreement. Kyiv was ready to discuss the withdrawal of troops from Donbas on the condition of a mutual withdrawal of forces, while the Kremlin demanded a unilateral withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and refused to accept security guarantees for Ukraine that involved the deployment of troops from other countries. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin did not approve any of the discussed agreement options. On May 22, the U.S. announced it was ending its participation in the negotiation process.
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Optimistic Ukrainian and Western sources cited by The Economist suggest that the diplomatic process could resume in the summer, but it is considered more likely that the war will continue until either Ukraine or Russia finds itself in a weaker position.
Vladimir Putin’s calculations regarding the war have not changed, and he still intends to continue hostilities, The Guardian reported late last week, citing sources close to the Kremlin. According to one of them, Putin expects to establish full control over the Donbas by the end of the year.
“Putin is focused on Donbas and has no intention of stopping until he achieves this goal,” said one of the sources.
According to The Guardian’s sources, Putin believes in a rapid military turnaround on the battlefield in Russia’s favor.
“Of course, officials and military leaders are painting a rosy picture for the president,” said a source close to the Kremlin. “They are lying to him. That’s how the system Putin has built works.”
Putin has lost faith in U.S. President Donald Trump’s ability to secure territorial concessions from Kyiv as part of a peace deal, sources told The Guardian.
“There was optimism in Moscow that after his election, Trump would be able to help reach agreements on Donbas. However, those expectations have since faded,” said one of the sources, who maintains contact with the Kremlin.
As reported by Reuters, citing a representative of one of the intelligence agencies, the Kremlin’s ultimate goal remains the removal of Zelenskyy from power and the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West.
Reports of Kyiv’s preparations for a scenario of prolonged war emerged as early as February. According to Boyan Panchevski, The Wall Street Journal’s chief political correspondent in Europe, Zelenskyy informed a small circle of advisers that peace talks had reached an impasse and instructed them to prepare a plan in case the war continued for another three years. These statements were made on the eve of the Ukrainian president’s trip to the Munich Security Conference, where he also called for preparations for a protracted conflict. Zelenskyy’s aide Dmytro Lytvyn dismissed the information as unreliable at the time and stated that no such directive to prepare a plan had been issued.
In an interview with The Atlantic, Zelenskyy also said he would rather continue hostilities than agree to an unfavorable deal. EU officials also viewed the negotiation process with skepticism and believed the war could last several more years, The Wall Street Journal reported. According to the publication’s sources, Donald Trump is also gradually losing interest in the peace settlement he had promised to secure in the short term.
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