Ukraine has made it into the top 10 countries worldwide with the highest rates of diesel price increases
26 May 13:57
ANALYSIS
The global energy crisis, triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and military tensions in the Middle East, continues to put pressure on the global fuel market. According to updated data from the international analytical platform Global Petrol Prices, global diesel prices have been rising rapidly since late February due to their direct link to industrial logistics and international trade, writes
Against the backdrop of the war and the resulting logistical difficulties and obstacles, Ukraine has entered the top ten countries with the highest rates of diesel price increases. Prices for diesel have jumped by 33.9%.
Global daily monitoring shows that a number of other regions around the world, particularly in Asia and North America, are experiencing a similar price shock.
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Below is a list of countries that have seen the largest percentage increase in cost since the start of the crisis, as well as current retail prices for diesel fuel converted to U.S. dollars (USD) per liter. Currency data is based on the weekly Global Petrol Prices index and average market monitoring as of May 26, 2026.
Top 10 countries by rate of increase in diesel prices and retail prices:
| Country | Price Change (%) | Price per 1 liter of diesel (in USD) |
| Philippines | 81.6% | $1.78 |
| Nigeria | 78.3% | $1.34 |
| Malaysia | 57.9% | $1.10 |
| Australia | 52.1% | $1.94 |
| Vietnam | 45.9% | $1.18 |
| Singapore | 44.0% | $2.25 |
| United States | 41.2% | $1.28 |
| Canada | 36.9% | $1.57 |
| Ukraine | 33.9% | $2.01 (-87.30–88.60 UAH) |
| Germany | 30.9% | $2.12 |
Thanks to the diversification of supplies and increased import volumes from the EU, a symbolic decrease in the price of diesel was even recorded on the Ukrainian market at the end of May (by an average of 8–10 kopecks per liter over the past week). As of the morning of May 26, the average retail price of diesel fuel at Ukrainian gas stations stabilized in the range of 87.30–88.62 UAH/liter.
Fuel prices in Ukraine are unlikely to drop significantly in the near future, despite minor fluctuations in prices on the global oil market. This opinion
According to the expert, the current drop in fuel prices by a few kopecks cannot be considered a sign of a stable trend.
“I think that a drop of 8 or 10 kopecks is not indicative, and it is not something that can tell us there is a trend,” Korolchuk noted.
He pointed out that even a significant increase in the price of oil on the global market did not lead to a sharp rise in prices at Ukrainian gas stations.
“When the price rose to $110 per barrel, we didn’t really see a significant reaction. And it went up by as much as $10 per barrel. It was $100—it became $110,” the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, fuel retailers have already reached the point where any further price increase could trigger a sharp drop in consumption.
“If there were even a slight increase, say, by just 2–3 hryvnias, consumers would react immediately and start cutting back on consumption,” he explained.
Korolchuk stressed that the decline in fuel consumption in Ukraine is already underway and is likely to intensify by the end of the year.
“I think the decline will be significant by New Year’s—I estimate about 15% compared to current fuel consumption in Ukraine,” the expert predicted.
He also noted that the market operates based on existing contracts tied to current oil exchange prices. That is why there is currently no basis for a sharp drop in fuel prices.
“So far, I don’t see any grounds to say that a price drop is coming,” Korolchuk said.
The expert also commented on the geopolitical situation surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, despite tensions in the region, the global energy market continues to operate relatively stably. He noted that tanker shipments of oil and gas are continuing, and major powers are finding ways to maintain supplies.
By comparison, oil-producing countries in the Middle East (such as Saudi Arabia) or major importers with specific regulations (such as India) have managed to keep retail fuel prices nearly unchanged, shielding domestic consumers from global price fluctuations.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense following three months of a de facto blockade amid the military conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran. It should be noted that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a plan that calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz approximately 30 days after both sides reach an agreement to cease hostilities. However, this does not inspire optimism, as the countries are still far from reaching an agreement. The latest escalation between the US and Iran occurred today, May 26, when the US military carried out defensive strikes on Iranian positions. This took place against the backdrop of ongoing diplomatic negotiations.
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