Ukraine is forecasting a 15% drop in fuel consumption by the end of the year
26 May 16:11
FORECAST
Ukraine is already seeing a significant drop in demand for automotive fuel. By the end of the year, consumption volumes could decline by approximately 15%. Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies, shared this information in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“I think the decline will be significant by New Year’s—I estimate about 15% compared to current fuel consumption in Ukraine,” the expert predicted.
According to the analyst, this trend is driven by a combination of economic and social factors that are forcing both private car owners and commercial entities to drastically cut costs.
READ ALSO: Diesel fuel prices are falling in Ukraine: what is known
He notes that despite the projected decline in demand, drivers should not count on lower prices at gas stations. This is because the market operates under existing contracts tied to current exchange prices for oil.
As of May 26, 2026, the average cost of petroleum products at Ukrainian gas stations remains at the following levels:
A-95 gasoline — 79.86 UAH/L
A-95 gasoline — 75.80 UAH/L
A-92 gasoline — 69.65 UAH/L
Diesel fuel (DF) — 86.87 UAH/L
Automotive gas (LPG) — 46.70 UAH/L
At the same time, there remains a significant price gap in the market: premium chains (OKKO, WOG, SOCAR) are selling A-95 gasoline at around 78.90–79.90 UAH/L, and diesel at up to 89.90 UAH/L, while at discounters and the national operator “Ukrnafta,” you can fill up for 4–6 UAH less.
The key factors influencing fuel prices in Ukraine remain fluctuations in global oil prices, the exchange rate of the national currency, and changes in excise taxes.
However, experts also cite a decline in the population’s purchasing power and optimization of business processes, as commercial companies, logistics operators, and farmers review routes and supply chains to reduce the share of fuel costs in the cost of goods and services, migration trends, and a decrease in the number of active drivers within the country.
At the same time, gas station network operators are leveraging loyalty programs to maintain retail demand going forward.
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