An economist explained whether there will be a shortage of goods from China in Ukraine and how prices will change
11 August 17:42
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The blockade of Black Sea ports will not affect the delivery of goods from China to Ukraine, economist Oleg Pendzin said in a comment to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“Goods from China enter Ukraine via various routes, not just through the Black Sea ports. Imports also come from Europe and by land. So there are no issues here specifically related to the route of entry,” Pendzin explains.
In addition, he notes that Ukraine has fairly large stockpiles of remaining goods, all of which were clearly prepared and properly stored.
“The price of goods from China would be affected much more significantly if a 20% value-added tax were imposed on international shipments by law. Until that happens, I don’t see any serious grounds for a sharp rise in prices,” the expert notes.
According to Pendzin, for an importer bringing in certain goods from China, by and large, not much has changed.
“Yes, they’re reviewing their logistics, but you have to understand what price really is. Price is the relationship between supply and demand. There is supply, but there is also effective demand in Ukraine. You could sell a generator at a price 40–50% higher. Would people buy it? Well, obviously not. That’s why, in this situation, I would be very cautious about making such statements,” says the expert.
According to Pendzin, we shouldn’t expect any significant changes, all thanks to the remaining stock of goods currently available in Ukraine. Furthermore, regarding the goods that will enter Ukraine, the expert explains that their supply will be determined based on the population’s effective demand. Pendzin does not rule out the possibility that some items may disappear from the market or new ones may appear. But, overall, in his opinion, prices will not rise significantly. As for a shortage of goods from China, Pendzin is categorical.
“Well, can you imagine a shortage of goods from China, which are coming in from all directions? And, by and large, do we have problems with internet access? Do we have problems ordering certain items on AliExpress or Temu? No. Therefore, there won’t be a shortage, nor will there be such a crazy surge in prices,” says the expert.
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As a reminder, financial analyst Oleksiy Kushch stated on a TV channel that Chinese imports could become 30–50% more expensive. According to him, this will happen if cargo has to be consistently routed to Ukraine via longer routes through European ports. This refers to a scenario in which some containers would have to be shipped via Klaipėda, Polish, German, or Belgian ports, and then transported to Ukraine by rail or road.
Such a route adds costs for transshipment, insurance, rail transport, and last-mile delivery. This will be felt most acutely by heavy or low-margin goods, where logistics account for a significant portion of the final price.
According to Kushch’s assessment, the first items likely to see price increases include charging stations and batteries, solar panels and components for solar power plants, electrical engineering and power generation equipment, components for wind power generation, as well as certain dual-use or industrial goods.
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