Coffee Is Getting More Expensive: What Global Events Are Affecting the Price of a Cup
22 August 08:02
ANALYSIS 
A powerful earthquake in Colombia and the El Niño climate phenomenon have created new risks for the global coffee market. No immediate shortage is expected in Ukraine thanks to existing stockpiles, but premium Colombian Arabica may become less available and be the first to see price increases. The Ukrainian Coffee Community discussed the possible consequences for the Ukrainian market in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Colombia remains one of the world’s largest producers of Arabica, so any prolonged disruptions to its production or exports could affect international prices and the cost of raw materials for roasters.
“Colombia is the second-largest producer of Arabica coffee after Brazil. An earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale struck western Colombia, killing more than 250 people and leaving hundreds missing. The earthquake struck the country’s coffee-growing regions, including Risaralda, Valle del Cauca, Caldas, Antioquia, Chocó, and Quindío. Many farms reported damage to their infrastructure,” the community said.
Coffee exports from Colombia were temporarily halted
In the days following the earthquake, logistics became the main challenge for the coffee industry. Damage to roads and tunnels complicated the delivery of coffee beans to the country’s main export port.
“According to reports, coffee exports from the country have virtually ceased. The Cali–Buenaventura highway, the main route to Colombia’s busiest port, is blocked in several places, particularly in the tunnels,” the Ukrainian Coffee Community noted.
The disruptions have affected not only transportation but also the operations of companies involved in processing and preparing grain for export.
“Asoexport Executive Director Gustavo Gomez says that transportation companies and processing plants have also suspended operations. The ports of Cartagena and Santa Marta remain open, but a shortage of trucks is limiting the amount of coffee reaching them,” the experts explained.
The specialized Global Coffee Report also reported on the near-complete suspension of operations in the first days following the natural disaster.
At the same time, as of August 21, the situation began to stabilize. According to updated information from Reuters, shipments through the port of Buenaventura have resumed following an inspection of the infrastructure and the clearing of major routes.
What Will Happen to Colombian Coffee Stocks in Ukraine
Ukrainian importers and roasters have some coffee bean stocks from previous shipments. Therefore, an immediate disappearance of Colombian coffee from stores and coffee shops is not expected.
However, the situation may vary depending on the specific roaster, its contracts, and available inventory levels.
“For coffee importers and roasters around the world, now is the time to speak directly with their local partners and plan their operations accordingly. For now, Ukraine still has stocks of Colombian coffee from previous shipments, but it is likely that the amount of Colombian coffee available to roasters will decrease or even disappear for a certain period of time,” the Ukrainian Coffee Community warned.
The most noticeable disruptions may occur in the specialty coffee segment. Expensive micro-lots from specific Colombian regions are difficult to quickly replace with beans from other countries without altering the beverage’s flavor profile.
Why Coffee Prices Were Rising Even Before the Earthquake
The earthquake was an additional risk factor, but global coffee prices were already rising. The market is simultaneously affected by climate change, a reduction in areas suitable for growing Arabica, and rising demand.
“Coffee has already become more expensive and continues to rise in price due to climate change. Global warming is affecting Arabica cultivation, and fewer and fewer lands are suitable for it,” experts explained.
Arabica requires specific natural conditions: the right elevation, moderate temperatures, sufficient rainfall, and a specific soil composition.
“Arabica must be grown at an altitude of 800 to 2,200 meters above sea level, and it must be cooler there than in the lowlands,” the coffee community emphasized.
Another factor is the growing consumption of coffee in Asian countries.
“We’ve also seen increased demand for coffee in Asian countries over the past five years. Given the high population density there, demand has risen partly because more people have literally started drinking coffee more often,” experts noted.
How El Niño Affects the Coffee Harvest
In the medium term, El Niño may pose a significantly greater threat to the harvest than the earthquake itself. This climatic phenomenon alters temperature patterns and rainfall distribution in Latin American countries.
“El Niño is a complex phenomenon caused by fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Its impact is felt most strongly in Latin America, where it affects air temperatures and precipitation patterns, and consequently, coffee production,” explained the Ukrainian Coffee Community.
The effects of El Niño can vary by region. In some countries, coffee plantations suffer from drought, while in others, they face excessive rainfall.
“When El Niño causes extremely dry conditions, it negatively affects coffee growth. Drought is less of a problem in regions with soil that retains moisture well, such as in some parts of Colombia,” experts said.
The situation may be most challenging in regions where soils lose moisture quickly.
“In regions that traditionally have drier soil, such as Mexico and the northern parts of Ecuador, Colombia, and Peru, prolonged periods without rain can lead to lower yields,” the community warned.
At the same time, excessive rainfall also poses risks to crops.
“Just as insufficient rainfall is a problem, excessive rainfall can also be problematic. For example, in Brazil, El Niño could cause excessive rainfall,” the experts noted.
Waterlogging can negatively affect the condition of plantations and future yields.
“This can overwhelm the soil’s ability to retain water, flooding coffee plantations and potentially causing uneven flowering,” the Ukrainian Coffee Community explained.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia forecasts that, due to unfavorable weather, production in 2026 could decline by approximately 8%—from 13.7 million to 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags. In July, production volumes had already fallen by 23% year-over-year.
Which coffee will see price increases first?
Arabica currently poses the greatest price risk. It is more sensitive to temperature, precipitation, growing altitude, and soil characteristics than Robusta.
“Arabica is more demanding in terms of terroir than Robusta, so it will be the first to become more expensive,” predicts the Ukrainian Coffee Community.
First and foremost, the price increase may affect premium Colombian Arabica and rare specialty lots. Mass-market coffee blends, which include Robusta or beans from several countries, may react to the situation later.
How Dependent Is Ukraine on Colombian Coffee?
There is no up-to-date public data that would allow for an accurate determination of the share of Colombian beans in the Ukrainian market. Some coffee also enters Ukraine through European traders, which complicates the identification of the actual country of origin.
“When it comes to the specialty coffee segment, Ukraine has top-quality and very expensive Colombian Arabica. It is undoubtedly highly prized,” the community explained.
At the same time, experts do not specify exact physical volumes of imports.
“We cannot provide specific figures on how many metric tons have been imported into Ukraine, as this data is not publicly available,” the Ukrainian Coffee Community emphasized.
What Prices Should Ukrainians Expect?
Experts have not yet provided a specific forecast in hryvnia or percentages. The final cost of a bag of beans or a cup of coffee will depend on global prices, the hryvnia exchange rate, logistics costs, roasters’ inventories, and the terms of previously signed contracts.
A sharp increase in the price of all coffee solely due to the earthquake is not currently expected, as Colombia’s export logistics are gradually recovering. However, a reduction in the upcoming harvest due to El Niño could keep global prices high for a longer period.
Buyers of premium Colombian Arabica may be the first to feel the effects. In the mass-market segment, producers will try to keep prices in check by turning to alternative suppliers and adjusting the composition of their blends.
“We believe that Ukrainian roasters will adapt and seek alternatives to Colombian coffee until supplies and port operations resume,” the Ukrainian Coffee Community concluded.
Thus, no immediate coffee shortage is currently forecast in Ukraine. At the same time, a combination of climate change, a possible decline in the harvest, high global demand, and logistical risks is creating the conditions for a further gradual increase in the price of Arabica.
