Training or Posturing: Why Lukashenko Is Showing Off His Army’s Strength
13 May 13:11
FORECAST
Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, continues to highlight the Belarusian army’s readiness, but there is currently no real threat of a new offensive from the north. This view was expressed by "Komersant Ukrainian" military expert Oleg Zhdanov, commenting on Minsk’s latest actions and military exercises in Belarus.
According to the expert, Lukashenko “is not changing his policy or actions regarding the military” and is primarily concerned with his own security. He needs to demonstrate the strength of the Belarusian army so that “no one would even think of attacking Belarus.” At the same time, these actions also have political undertones in relations with the Kremlin.
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Zhdanov notes that Lukashenko is trying to show Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that the Belarusian army is not yet ready for large-scale intervention in the war.
“He is trying to demonstrate to Putin that he is very busy and that his army still needs a little more preparation, and then they can talk,” the expert explained.
The reason for this is obvious: the Kremlin is constantly pressuring Minsk and trying to drag Belarus into direct armed conflict against Ukraine.
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The expert recalled that from the very first weeks of the full-scale invasion, Lukashenko regularly announced combat readiness inspections, conducted large-scale exercises, mobilized garrisons, and organized reservist drills. However, according to Zhdanov, these actions were more for show and aimed at creating the illusion of war readiness.
“To say that there is currently any real threat to us—no,” he emphasized.
At the same time, Lukashenko tried to avoid direct participation of Belarusian troops in combat operations, allowing Russia to recruit Belarusian citizens. According to the expert, some Belarusian military personnel were even sent to Russia under the pretext of training, although in reality they were bolstering the ranks of the Russian army.
Today, however, Minsk faces a different problem—a shortage of personnel. Belarusian society is increasingly opposed to the prospect of participating in the war.
“Society doesn’t want to fight; it doesn’t want to join the army,” Zhdanov emphasized.
That is precisely why Lukashenko is forced to seek ways to replenish the army while simultaneously balancing the Kremlin’s demands with domestic sentiment.
As reported by
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