A seasonal paradox: Tomato prices are expected to rise in Ukraine in August and September
14 July 12:37
ANALYSIS
Although the end of summer is traditionally considered the peak of the harvest season, Ukrainians should prepare for rising prices on tomatoes and cucumbers as early as the next two months. This is indicated by expert assessments of market trends, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Experts emphasize that the lowest prices of this season have already been recorded; they occurred in June and were driven by massive supplies from stationary greenhouse complexes and the first large harvests from summer plastic greenhouses.
Thus, at the beginning of summer, wholesale prices for greenhouse tomatoes started at 60–85 UAH/kg, but by July, with the arrival of the first harvest from plastic-covered greenhouses, they had dropped to 40–65 UAH/kg depending on the variety (regular round or pink).
The situation with cucumbers turned out to be even more volatile: while in June the average price remained at 50–70 UAH/kg, in July, mass harvesting from open fields and private households drove the price down to this season’s low of 15–45 UAH/kg. However, even this decline did not match last year’s figures, when vegetables used in borscht and salad mixes cost on average 30–40% less.
As for tomatoes, their prices remain high. Due to insufficient domestic production, prices throughout the spring and the first half of summer were nearly twice as high as last year. As agricultural market expert Oleksandr Khorev notes,
“If we look at trends from past seasons, starting around August—perhaps as early as September—[tomato prices] will start to rise.”
The situation with cucumbers, which currently cost between 15 and 45 UAH per kilogram, will follow a similar pattern.
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Oleksandr Khorev predicts that after the end of July, starting in August, prices may gradually rise, as in previous seasons, because there won’t be as much produce as there was in the first half of this current season.
“For example, regarding cucumbers, Ukrainian stationary greenhouse complexes typically begin their second harvest cycle in August. This is traditional. And the volume of produce on the market will rise sharply. But we should note that in August and September, we have virtually no imports—this is also a seasonal factor—and we have to rely solely on our domestic producers. Of course, produce from plastic-covered greenhouses and open-field cultivation will be virtually absent from the market during these months,” he explains.
The main reason for this shortage is the situation in the occupied and frontline regions of southern Ukraine, which supplied the country with field-grown tomatoes before the war. Commenting on the percentage of lost acreage, Oleksandr Khorev explains:
“It’s very difficult to estimate in percentage terms, but most of the industrial tomato production is currently either under occupation or has not yet resumed operations. This is the left bank of the Dnipro—Zaporizhzhia Oblast and part of Kherson Oblast. There used to be massive open-field vegetable cultivation there. Those areas remain under occupation. As for the right bank, this includes most of the Mykolaiv region and part of the Kherson region. There are large, powerful producers there, such as “Sandora” and other companies, but in most of those areas, production has not resumed precisely because of the fighting, proximity to the front lines, and ongoing demining efforts,” the expert concludes.
In addition to the war, vegetable prices are under pressure from the seasonal halt in imports at the end of summer, when the market is entirely dependent on domestic producers. At the same time, the expert points out that industrial tomato cultivation in open fields in government-controlled territories is currently focused primarily on processing rather than the so-called fresh market, and supply from plastic-covered greenhouses declines rapidly in the fall.
“Going forward, prices will be set by permanent greenhouse complexes based on their second harvest; however, as practice shows, the cost of such produce is never lower than spring and summer levels. Due to a shortage of supply, Ukrainian consumers are forced to view summer vegetables no longer as a staple, but as a kind of luxury item,” says Oleksandr Khorev.
Oleksandr Khorev is a well-known Ukrainian agricultural market analyst and a leading expert in the fruit and vegetable sector. He is the project manager of EastFruit Weekly Ukraine and regularly publishes analytical reviews on the leading platforms EastFruit and AgroTimes.
Specialization: research and forecasting of the fruit and vegetable business in Ukraine and CIS countries; analysis of supply and demand; monitoring of wholesale prices for vegetables used in borscht, as well as fruits and berries. He is consulted by leading Ukrainian media outlets as a subject-matter expert to assess the situation in the food market and forecast shortages or price spikes for imported and domestic fruits and vegetables.
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