Economy

The U.S. has lowered its forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports: what does this mean?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for Ukraine for the 2025/2026 marketing year. This was reported by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), according to "Komersant Ukrainian".

• Wheat production: unchanged at 24 million tons
• Wheat exports: reduced by 1 million tons — to 12.5 million tons

This means that with stable production, Ukraine will be able to sell less grain to foreign markets.

More grain — less demand

The updated forecast highlights a contradictory situation in the global market:

• Wheat production is rising: to 844.2 million tons
• Consumption is falling: to 820.1 million tons
• Global trade is shrinking
• Stocks are rising: to 283.1 million tons (9% year-on-year)

The key reason for the decline in consumption is falling demand in India.

Who will offset Ukraine’s decline

The decline in Ukrainian exports is partially offset by other players:

Export growth:

• Russia: 1 million tons
• Kazakhstan: 0.5 million tons

Decline in exports:

• Ukraine: –1 million tons
• Australia: –0.5 million tons
• Brazil: –0.2 million tons

As a result, global trade is still declining.

Why are inventories rising?

Despite the decline in trade, inventories are increasing due to:

• stable or rising production
• declining consumption

The largest contributors to the growth in inventories are:

• India
• Ukraine
• EU
• Australia
• Bangladesh

What about corn

Unlike wheat, the situation with corn looks more stable.

For Ukraine:

• production — 30.7 million tons (no change)
• exports — 22 million tons (unchanged)

Globally:

• production is rising to 1.3 billion tons
• trade is also growing
• stocks are increasing

The main driver is production growth in India, South Africa, and Russia.

What this means for Ukraine

A decline in wheat exports signals:

• intensifying competition in global markets
• price pressure due to rising stocks
• a shift in Ukraine’s role in global grain trade

At the same time, stable corn figures partially offset these risks.

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