Milk Prices Are Set to Rise: Why Ukrainians Are Overpaying at Supermarkets and What Will Happen to Prices
1 June 15:24
No shortage of dairy products is expected in Ukraine despite a decline in the cow herd to 944,500 head—one of the lowest figures since independence. This was stated in a comment to "Komersant Ukrainian" by Olena Zhupinas, Deputy Director General and Head of Processing Cooperation Projects at the Association of Milk Producers.
According to her, the number of cows alone is not a decisive indicator of the country’s food security.
“The figure of 944,500 is an alarming sign. This is one of the lowest figures since Ukraine’s independence. But the issue isn’t just how many cows we have, but how much milk they produce,” explained Župinas.
She noted that as of early 2022, there were 1.34 million cows in Ukraine, of which nearly 390,000 were kept on commercial dairy farms. During the full-scale war, milk production on these farms increased by 20%.
“The same number of cows on commercial dairy farms began producing more milk. It is precisely because of this factor that there will be no shortage of dairy products in Ukraine in the near future, and our food security is assured,” noted the Association representative.
At the same time, she warned of future risks. According to the expert, if the reduction in livestock on industrial farms continues, it could create problems for supplying the processing industry with raw materials.
“95% of the milk sent to processing plants comes from commercial dairy farms. If the decline continues, this could become a problem in the future,” said Zhupinas.
The Association also explained the reasons for the rise in dairy product prices. According to Zupinas, farmers are currently operating at a loss.
“The average price of milk at the end of May was 13.95 hryvnia per kilogram, while the cost of production for this milk is 16.50 hryvnia. In other words, farmers are producing it at a loss,” she emphasized.
At the same time, processing plants earn about 1.2–1.5 hryvnia per liter of milk, while a significant portion of the final cost is made up of retail chains’ markups and VAT.
“Retail chains’ markup is approximately 12 hryvnias, and the value-added tax is about the same. It is the retailers who are profiting, not the farmers or processors,” stated the industry representative.
According to the forecast of the Association of Milk Producers, dairy products may rise in price by another 10–15% by the end of the year.
“First and foremost, this will depend on rising energy and fuel prices. If energy costs go up, processing costs will go up. For retailers, cooling and electricity will also become more expensive,” explained Zhupinas.
Adapting to European Union requirements remains a separate challenge for the industry. Starting in 2028, Ukrainian producers must comply with European standards for production safety and animal welfare, and starting in 2029, only extra-grade milk should be accepted for processing.
“If the government does not find the funds to support the industry, we may lose it, and then we will depend on imports. That is precisely when our food security could be in a rather precarious state,” concluded Olena Zhupinas.
It is worth noting that in April 2026, Ukraine saw a decline in the number of cows in both the commercial and backyard farming sectors.
In addition, in April 2026, prices for certain dairy products fell in Ukraine. Specifically, prices dropped for drinking milk in cartons and bottles, sour cream in cups and cartons, drinking yogurt in bottles, and butter.
