UN: If the war continues, nearly all Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe
17 May 18:12
The number of refugees from Ukraine who will remain in Europe by the end of 2029 will be 2.9 million, or 56% of their current number, under the “fragile peace with concessions” scenario, in which hostilities cease by the end of 2026, but Russia retains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, the level of investment in territories under Ukrainian government control is medium/high, and the EU’s temporary protection status for refugees expires in March 2027. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" citing “Interfax-Ukraine.”
The results of this agent-based model were published by the UNHCR in a special study titled “Transition from Temporary Protection: Projected Duration of Stay, Legal Pathways, and Policy Options for Refugees from Ukraine,” based on which it recommends that the EU extend temporary protection status.
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Under a scenario of ongoing war or “status quo,” there will be 5.16 million refugees from Ukraine in Europe by the end of 2029, or 99% of their current number, and only in the event of a “Ukrainian victory” with the return of occupied territories by the end of this year could their number drop to 32%.
“These scenarios are not predictive. Rather, they provide a structured, methodologically sound way to examine how decision-making and refugee behavior might change in response to various likely future events, based on a range of data,” the authors of the study clarified. The study utilized the results of the seventh refugee survey conducted in February 2026 and involved Brunel University London.
It is projected that in a fragile peace scenario, the distribution of refugees who will not return to Ukraine will be geographically uneven: more than half of the current number of refugees will remain in some countries of Western and Northern Europe, while less than half will remain in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe. For example, Germany, which hosts the largest number of Ukrainian refugees, will retain 67%, while Moldova will retain 34% and Hungary 38%. For Poland and the Czech Republic, which are the second and third countries in the EU in terms of the number of refugees from Ukraine, these figures are 53% and 51%, respectively.
UNHCR noted that under both the status quo scenario and the fragile peace scenario, there will be more households among the refugees remaining in host countries that are potentially less vulnerable. This group consists mainly of families in which at least one member is employed. It is also projected that family reunification in host countries and the integration of children into education systems will contribute to lower return rates.
According to the study, geographic origin also significantly influences projected return decisions. In a fragile peace scenario, the share of refugees from eastern Ukraine among those who will remain in Europe will be 44%, from the south—24%, from Kyiv—9%, from the north—10%, from the west—8%, and from the center—5%.
UNHCR, citing the study involving 4,400 refugees, noted that 59% of respondents with temporary protection status intend to change their legal status within the next 12 months. However, the anticipated paths to achieving this goal vary significantly depending on the family’s profile. If there is at least one working member in the family, 33% plan to obtain a work permit, only 10% plan to apply for refugee status, and 2% plan to pursue education, whereas in families without working members, these figures are 16%, 16%, and 5%, respectively.
“Vulnerability, information gaps, and the inability to use alternative legal pathways together create a real risk of legal uncertainty, denial of access to rights, pressure on national asylum systems, and potential further displacement among EU member states should temporary protection status expire in March 2027 … without transitional arrangements, grace periods, or scalable alternative legal statuses that a large proportion of refugees could realistically access,” states UNHCR.
In its view, even under a fragile peace scenario, key conditions for return—such as housing, services, employment, and demining—are unlikely to immediately meet needs on a large scale.
“Continuity of stay must be maintained beyond March 2027 without distinction based on employment status, length of stay, possession of valid travel documents, region of origin, or other factors,” the UNHCR believes.
“If the status quo persists, this may require another extension of the temporary stay with clearly defined timeframes, as well as accelerated preparations for the transition to alternative legal statuses. In the event of a fragile peace, a transitional status coordinated by the EU should ensure the right to stay, the preservation of rights, and access to services during the recovery and transition period,” the study’s recommendations state.
Earlier this week, the European Union’s Special Envoy for Ukrainians, Ilva Johansson, said in an interview with the Ukrainian-language DW video podcast “Brussels Calls” that she expects the EU to extend temporary protection for Ukrainians for another year—until 2028.
Given the current situation, I think there will be a proposal (from the European Commission—Ed.) to extend it for another year—until March 2028. And I think EU member states will agree to this, Johansson noted.
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