Almost Like in a Casino: Who Is Betting on Ukrainian Bonds—and Why?
21 August 19:02
ANALYSIS FROM 
Foreign investors are showing keen interest in Ukrainian bonds. This interest is fueled by the increasingly high yields on Ukrainian securities. Western experts are noting precisely these trends. "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated what they might indicate.
Bloomberg recently reported on the heightened interest in Ukrainian bonds and their corresponding yields. The publication notes that the country’s resilience on the battlefield, combined with new multibillion-euro aid from the EU and restructuring agreements reached with creditors, is creating a new sense of confidence that is driving up interest in Ukrainian bonds. Analysts have differing views on how events will unfold, but those who focus on emerging-market stock markets emphasize that, despite potential problems, investments related to Ukraine—while high-risk— they are too attractive to be ignored.
The current yield on Ukrainian bonds is better than last year’s. According to the Bloomberg index, which tracks nine dollar-denominated securities, Ukraine’s sovereign bonds have risen 12% since the beginning of 2026. In 2025, the index rose by 10%. But it’s not just the yields on Ukrainian government bonds that are attracting investors’ attention. There are also opportunities in the corporate segment: according to Bloomberg, Metinvest NV bonds have yielded 31% this year, while Naftogaz bonds have promised a yield of 23%.
The fact that there are plenty of risk-seeking investors around the world who are willing to buy Ukrainian bonds doesn’t come as much of a surprise to investment banker Serhiy Fursa.
“Ukraine still offers good returns. There’s simply no other option in the world right now that offers this kind of return. Nor are there returns like those offered by high-quality Ukrainian corporations that have weathered four years of war and continue to service their debts. That’s why it attracts foreign investors, hedge funds, and other players looking for yields around the world. No one other than Ukraine is currently offering this level of returns. That is one of the reasons why investors are buying these very Ukrainian corporate bonds,” the expert notes.
Another argument for investors—and at the same time a guarantee of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability—is Western support. Serhiy Fursa points out that such support is guaranteed for the next two years, so no one expects any macroeconomic problems with Ukraine. For the same reason, there are no particular concerns regarding Ukrainian debt. This, in turn, stimulates the purchase of Ukrainian securities.
On the other hand, there is a risk that the situation could change and that optimistic expectations may not materialize. It is no coincidence that a Bloomberg article compares the purchase of Ukrainian bonds to a one-sided bet on whether Ukraine will ultimately be able to negotiate an end to the war and revive its economy. For now, investors seem to be more optimistic.
Ivan Kompan, founder of the First Kyiv Investment Club, explains investors’ reasoning using the following examples:
“If we receive a tranche from our allies or from the IMF and the situation appears more or less stable—for example, in terms of replenishing the Ukrainian state budget—then demand is slightly higher. So there was some good news, and someone decided to play this game against the backdrop of that news. That is, they decided to take a risk and, hypothetically, bought $100,000 worth of bonds. With that volume, the price changed, and one could draw some optimistic conclusions. Or one could draw realistic conclusions. Because tomorrow there might be news that the tranche is being delayed or that someone in the EU has set a condition to combat corruption in Ukraine, and everything will go in the opposite direction.”
According to Ivan Kompan, bonds are too risky a market segment, and a 30 percent yield is an outrageous return—and it doesn’t mean that anyone is guaranteed to pay that 30 percent.
“This means that the risk of investing in such securities is enormous. Let me also remind you that price and yield move in opposite directions. And if, for example, the yield on bonds is 20% or 30%, then their price is low. In other words, if everything goes well and you’re lucky, you can earn that 20% or 30%. But you might not be so lucky. It’s a huge risk,” the expert notes.
Therefore, according to Ivan Kompan, he never advises ordinary investors to get involved in such schemes. While for a professional who understands the risks and has access to additional information, this might be an interesting opportunity, for the average investor, it’s simply a gamble.
